Keeper question

[brentmetcalf]

Ok I have to choose between:

Kershaw
Cano
Edwin Encarnacion

Which one do you choose?

My other two keepers are Miggy and Stanton....

[Todd Zola]

We could use league context -- that said, hard toss back Kershaw.

[brentmetcalf]

ok sorry, 5 X 5.....standard ten team league.....

I have to choose.....three keepers either

Kershaw
Cano
Stanton
Cabrera
EE..

Also I would select these players as my first three picks, which with my pick being 10th still provides some value. At this point I am leaning towards going with a strong offense.

Stanton is a lock
Cabrera the reports I have heard on him have been encouraging to this point...if he is healthy seems like a no brainer

so if comes down to ONE of either...CANO, EE, or Kershaw

[da_big_kid_94]

IMHO, the best pitcher in baseball does not get jettisoned in favor of Robinson Cano. He puts up good but not great numbers (if he had a HR number starting with a 2 or triple digits in RBI or runs last year, I may have a different opinion). Kershaw can cover other mistakes on your pitching staff.

[Todd Zola]

starting with Stanton and Miggy gives you a strong offense -- though both carry some risk. In a 10-team league I'd definitely keep Kershaw.

[Todd Zola]

ETA -- I thought this looked familiar --you're doing us a disservice by not posting the real question with all the keepers in their respective rounds. My answer could be different. It would be interesting to get the perspective on the whole question here.

[brentmetcalf]

Yes, sorry I was trying to simplify things a little but here is the whole breakdown, with a little more background

10 Team standard league MLB w/expanded rosters...34 players drafted on each team

3 Keepers.....open choice can choose any three I want...(even if they were drafted last year in the same round)

Players are selected this year on where they were drafted last season...players can be kept a max of 3 years...this is the first year of keepers in this league...

So my draft position is the 10th spot...so I draft at the end of the 1st beginning of the 2nd typical snake draft...

WHICH THREE OF THIS LIST WOULD YOU KEEP? and WHY?? Thanks for your help and feedback...

Clayton Kershaw--1st round
Miguel Cabrera--1st round
Giancarlo Stanton--3rd round
Robinson Cano--1st round
Edwin Encarnacion-2nd round
Chris Sale--4th round
David Price--4th round
Chris Carter---last round

[Todd Zola]

This will take some time and guess work but here's what I do...

My two scenarios are

1. Kershaw
2. Miggy
3. Stanton
4. Pick #31

1. Miggy
2. Pick #11
3. Stanton
4. Sale

I figure out what hitter I can get at #11 and who I can get at #31

Kershaw is goofy good but Sale is pretty dang good too. My guess is the difference between the hitter at 11 and the hitter at 31 is pretty steep since so many that would go in that range in a redraft will be kept in lower rounds.

Guessing on keepers provides the answer.

[brentmetcalf]

I have done quite a bit of homework on who will not be kept...

here is the pool....if things go like I believe they will these are the top players that will be available in the first round....

As of right now...from talking to people only three players will be kept from the first round last year

Meaning there will be 7 team picking from this pool of top remaining players

Goldschmidt
Adam Jones
Cano
EE
Ellsbury
Braun
Freeman
Dickerson
Puig
J. Upton
Pujols
Votto

[Todd Zola]

that's half of what you need - still need to guess #31

My top 6 are

Goldie
Jones
Puig
Cano
EE
Ellsbury

then a drop to

Freeman/J-Up.

Are there any pitchers that may sneak in? For instance, if you keep Sale then Kershaw is available and likely goes top-7.

[brentmetcalf]

Ok here is what would be left...

So I would have the 10 player off this list....If I throw back Kershaw and keep Sale I add one more to the player pool....Kershaw most likely would be the only pitcher drafted during that time before I pick at (10) Cabrera and (11)........with the swing pick

1. Goldie
2. Jones
3. Puig
4. Cano
5. EE
6. Ellsbury
7. Jose Bautista
8. Adrian Beltre
9. Freeman
10. Chris Sale
11. Madison Bumgardner
12. Max Scherzer
13. David Price
14. Hanley Ramirez
15. Strarsburg
16. Upton
17. Braun
18. Dickerson
19. Wainwright
20. Marte
21. Longoria
22. Pence
23. Darvish
24. Reyes
25. Cespedes
26. Jordan Zimmerman
27. Cole Hamels
28. Pujols
29. Cargo
30. Kinsler
31. Ortiz
32. Chapman
33. Kimbrell
34. Hamilton
35. Fielder
36. Seagar
37. Calhoun
38. Kipnis
39. Bruce

[Todd Zola]

getting closer...

how many from that list will be taken before pick #31? That, how many are kept in the first three rounds?Trying to get a handle on the quality of pick #31.

[brentmetcalf]

ok here is what I have estimated projecting keepers

6 picks open first round
9 picks open 2nd
7 picks open 3rd
8 picks open 4th
total of 30 players will be gone out of the list...estimate

10th-first round (potential of keeping Cabrera)
11th-second round (potential of Keeping Kershaw or leave open to pick from pool)
30th-third round (Keeping Stanton)
31st-fourth round (Potential of keeping Sale or leave open pick from pool)

[Todd Zola]

Looks like 22 or so players drafted before your first pick in the 4th (if you keep Kershaw)

So barring a surprise, I see it as

Kershaw + Justin Upton (by a hair over Freeman) vs Sale and Seager/Calhoun

Depending how others feel, the choice could be better than Seager, that's sort of the last possible player I like at that spot. Chances are someone a little better will be available.

Based on that, I like the idea of keeping Kershaw and taking a chance someone I really like is there for me at 4.01.

Alternatively (and you're really the only one that can decide this since you know your league), if you think Scherzer/Strasburg/Bumgarner/Sale/Hamels/Price will be there at 4.01 I can see keeping three hitters. This is actually my favorite choice IF you are sure you can get one of the pitchers.

[brentmetcalf]

ok for argument sake.....lets say I go the offense option and take the risk on waiting on pitching

who out of these do you take with that option

Cabrera-1st
Cano-1st
EE-2nd
Stanton-3rd
Braun-2nd
Carter-22nd

[Todd Zola]

Braun and Carter are out.

There's risk in Miggy, Stanton and EE. Cano is safest but also lower ceiling.

I suppose Miggy and Stanton are too good to pass up.

If you want to temper the risks with some stability, then Cano.

Personally, if I'm already taking the risks, may as well go all-in with EE.

[brentmetcalf]

thanks for the help....

I think now I am down to a decision of what strategy I want to take...My gut says to go offense and gamble and wait until the 4th round for a pitcher.....

Balanced...

Cabrera, Stanton, Kershaw

if for some reason I get cold feet on Cabrera before it locks I could

EE, Stanton, Kershaw

or

Offensive

EE, Cabrera, and Stanton

[brentmetcalf]

Ok the league just updated it's rules...which I am ok with but it significantly changes my strategy and keeper selection

Now you can no longer keep a player that was picked in the 1st or 2nd round last season..
so that rules out...

Kershaw,
EE,
Cano,

also we have added a second catcher to the roster....for a total of two....

Now my options are as follows...

Stanton-3rd
Chris Carter-22nd
Sale-4th
Yan Gomes-27th
Billy Hamilton-10th

what do you think

[Captain Hook]

I would keep Stanton, Sale, and Hamilton

[brentmetcalf]

Stanton is a no brainer.....

I just don't know if I am sold on Hamilton?

I also like Yan Gomes in a two catcher league in the 27th round. I feel like that is pretty good value

[Todd Zola]

Gomes for me but that's because there are several players I like with decent speed.

You said you're OK with the rule changes so this is moot, but any rule change involving keepers - especially if moves/trades were made last year with the rules in mind -- should not be implemented until the following season.

Unless of course, everyone agrees (which appears to be the case). so...

never mind

[brentmetcalf]

Yes we decided that it would be best for the league to change the rules....

So you would keep, stanton, sale, and gomes...

and not keep hamilton?

[Todd Zola]

I'd keep Gomes but it's a coin flip.

[da_big_kid_94]

Take from a different perspective.

• Reds run differential last three years; 81, 109, -17
• What have they done to address that situation? 37 year old Marlon Byrd and probably hundreds of novenas for the return to good health and hitting ability of Joey Votto.
• Hamilton's OBP in 2014 was .292 and his SB success rate was 70% - so he's part of the run differential problem.

The popular notion is that he'll only get better as he gets more experience - but what if he doesn't? If you like the risk, keep Hamilton. If you are risk averse? Gomes is the way to go.

[Captain Hook]

Stanton is a no brainer.....

I just don't know if I am sold on Hamilton?

I also like Yan Gomes in a two catcher league in the 27th round. I feel like that is pretty good value

Regarding Hamilton - sold on what?

The guy single handedly will help you win the SB column more than any two players

Maybe this will help - How do you like the player below?

Hitter - HR - R - RBI - SB - BAvg
OF - - - 24 - 84 - 77 - 34 - 260+

[Captain Hook]

That player is the combination/average of Stanton and Billy Hamilton so you get two outfielders with those stats by taking Stanton and Hamilton for 48 HR; 168 R; 154 RBI, 68 SB and BAvg north of 260

Again I LIKE Gomes but you are only in a ten team league so there is no need to keep a catcher when you have better alternatives

[brentmetcalf]

I'd keep Gomes but it's a coin flip.

I had another thought today while I was looking over my options.

I have David Price who was drafted in the 4th round (But I would get to keep him in the 5th round because I have two 4th round keepers). Before the rule changes I really hadn't considered him because I had other options. One thing that I believe that I have heard you say is that studs win shallow leagues. Price fits that mold

Here is what my roster would look like:

1st Round (10 overall pick)-Draft best hitter
2nd Round (11 overall pick)-Draft best hitter
3rd (30 overall pick)-Stanton
4th (31 overall pick)-Sale
5th-(50 overall pick)-Price
6th-(51 overall pick)-Draft best hitter

Keeping both Sale and Price will set up my pitching staff with two pitchers better than most....and I don't see it really affecting my offense to much. Price may have more value than: Yan Gomes, Billy Hamilton, Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal, Drew Storen, Chris Carter.

Thoughts?

[Todd Zola]

My first thought is ending a post with thoughts? gives me the heebeejeebies. It's an irrational thing, I know, but so is being scared of clowns etc.

But I digress...

Even with 2 catchers I'd do that and keep Price.

Good thought.

[brentmetcalf]

Thanks for the help....I submitted my keepers and was talking to one of the league members about who I was keeping. Then he made me this trade offer

Matt Kemp---6th Round

for

David Price---4th Round Keeper

Don't know what to think about the offer but I am intrigued by it...

Kemp has the upside of a first round player...

Price is more of a safe pick

1st-Open
2nd-OPen
3rd-Stanton
4th-Sale
5th-Open
6th-Kemp

What would you do with this offer? Accept or Decline??

[Todd Zola]

Let's see if we can figure out both rosters, remove the common players and see which combo is better

1st-Open/Open
2nd-Open/Open
3rd-Stanton/Stanton
4th-Sale/Sale
5th-Open/Price
6th-Kemp/Open

I'm going to assume in either case the 1st rounder is the same hitter

HITTER/Stanton/Sale/Kemp -- do you draft a pitcher in 2 or 5?

HITTER/Stanton/Sale/Price -- likely drafting two hitters

_____________________________________________________

PATH A

Keep Kemp, draft hitter in 2nd -- probably the same hitter if you keep price so now the only difference is

Kemp + Pitcher in the 5th versus Price + Hitter in the Sixth

_____________________________________________________

PATH B

Keep Keep, draft pitcher in second

Pitcher in second + Kemp + Hitter in 5th versus Price plus Hitter in 2nd and hitter in 6th
______________________________________________________

You're going to have to make your best guess to fill in the blanks to see if either of the green scenarios are appealing. if not, then keep Price.

[brentmetcalf]

So I decided to make the Kemp for Price trade...

Now I have been offered another trade

Fairly simple

Chris Sale 4th round

for

Ian Desmond 4th round

So if I accept the trade my keepers would be

Stanton 3rd
Desmond 4th
Kemp 6th

Do you like this trade?

[Captain Hook]

I like this one better than the last one (which I wouldn't have done - you mention Kemp's upside but don't worry about his downside?) BUT I wouldn't make both wanting to keep one ace SP