Mastersball Fantasy Forum

viper

My true thoughts would be 15 but that wasn't an option. The first year is beginning to smell like an outlier but the last seems lowish. My thoughts are that something has changed.

viper

With this minimal data, also assuming he is playing with essentially the same situation [team, teammates], I would think it would be between 25-33, so I would best guess a bit under 30. On a side note, if a site suggested 25 or 35, I would not find either out of line. If it was 20 or 40, I would ask...

viper

sock it to me

viper

the 9th will be on a Wednesday in like September. You just had the wrong month on your calendar.

viper

two questions 1. How do you handle online drafts assuming you have just one computer? Switching back and forth could easily cost you seeing a pick or two. 2. In sounds as if rotolab makes "suggestions" based on your projections and the current projected standings. This seems fraught with d...

viper

we draft 40 players. Anyone on the 40-man roster is available. You can hold everyone. So yes, we can draft and hold minor leaguers. Each bench will be 19 deep. My guess is that most will have 8-10 prospects along with most SP/RP on someone's roster - Holds is a category so MRs have value. With daily...

viper

We started the slow draft yesterday afternoon. Round two has one pick left. I ahave the 12 slot [on the turn] and drafted Kinsler & Teixeira. Strangest draft I have ever been in. It seems like all are drafting more for 2012 than 2009. I know 3 or 4 of these people and they are good players who p...

viper

Mock Draft Central has an option for $19.95. I know nothing about their hosting of drafts for non-NFBC leagues but it says it is controlled by the league commissioner. The NFBC uses MDC for all its satellite leagues. I've draft about 8 or so satellite leagues on it. The fact that you can pause the d...

viper

take away that laptop, do a straight draft and have 90 seconds for a pick. When picks go bang-bang-bang, I would question anyone's ability to truly reassess a draft on the fly. Even with a laptop and rotolab [ I don't use it but everyone says it can do these type of assessments], you could easily sp...

viper

Place that have be suggested to bone up on minor league prospects include
1. Baseball America Prospect Handbook
2. Books by John Sickles
3. BBHQ - one of their staff has a book
4. Articles by Jason Gray

other suggestions or, better yet, comments on those already received.

viper

I have never done a keeper league but just joined a new one. Actually it is a dynasty league in that you draft 40 players and you can keep them all forever. I think it is mostly some of the better ESPN players - not totally sure. The guy starting it goes by YOSH and I know he is very good. 12 teams ...

viper

It's probably easier to get caught into chasing stats in straight draft leagues rather than auctions. In an auction you have to be ready to bid everyone time a player comes up but you can compete for any player. You have a better control over who you chase. You may lose but you had the opportunity. ...

viper

Although I don't recall this problem per se, I remember removing all non-starters from the list of pitchers I used for PAUL. In my only leagues, I know what closers typically go for so I set up pitching dollars to equal my allocation less what I would spend on closers. I am doing 10 team "only'...

viper

my modification was easier. several of my leagues use IP's instead of K's. an easy swap

viper

For a couple of years I feel I have bombarded with the idea that I should not expend either high picks in a straight draft or spend any real money in an auction draft. The generalized statements are you can ALWAYS find saves. Poppycock !! In today's world with unlimited access, smarter owners and mo...

viper

I felt like Butch Cassidy during my first mock draft. Research is needed on Kenshin Kawakami of the Braves and Hong-Chih Kuo of the Dodgers. I know Kuo has been with the Dodgers and is a RP but his numbers last year were a whole lot different from his first 3 years. Kuo was my 23rd round pick in my ...

viper

80 minutes for a 15 team 23 round draft. Two didn't show up. The 45 second to pick format is really hectic. It will make the actual longer format seem real slow - and it is actually. And what I learned: 1. The cross reference list is really needed right now 2. I need to learn where players are locat...

viper

ESPN is daily move no limit ... not that I would recommend them but an awful lot of people play there.

viper

I agree that he is going for more than a few buck in every projection but I suspect they all assume he can be replaced until he comes up. He will probably end up going for almost the cost of a 2nd tier catcher in my two AL only leagues. I sort of hope there is a bidding war on him - one in which I w...

viper

here is a topic we can all sink our teeth into. I'm having my first mock draft tonight on MDC - an NFBC-style 45 second a pick draft. It seems that every time I have a mock draft some new thought pops in my head. It is a simple as "Who the hell is that player and why was he taken?". More o...

viper

this was really an attempt to let everyone practice their writing skills.

Not really but based on the word count in these posts, it sure seems this way. Every once in a while there needs to be a forum topic to let people rant a bit. I enjoy starting them.

viper

we need to have one of those 45 sec drafts at MDC. Not even time to make a single change.

viper

I don't see where any apologies are really needed. This has got to be one of the best forum there is. I read BBHQ periodically but i don't see this lebel of discussion on such a wide variety of topics. The new FantasyBaseball free forum is pretty much deviod of activity. I'm actually tracking the ac...

viper

I think Viper's calculations avoid some of the rough edges of the crude methods I have used, but I would be interested to know how time consuming Viper's effort to put this data together was. Over the past several years I have developed a hitting spreadsheet that goes to column BP and a pitching sp...

viper

If I have a little free time, I might normalize the numbers by recalculating all based on the average ABs for the two sites. I could then see where the bigger differences were. That task is not real high on my list and this occurs naturally in most cases over the next four weeks.

viper

AB is always a driving factor but several of the outliers are within 20 or so ABs. BBHQ is lower on all the MB plus players and MB is lower on all but two of the MB minus players.

viper

the "similars" is a very lengthy list. Again I just looked at the first 210 position players that bubbled up on my draft list, excluding one single player not rated by BBHQ as of 2/1/09. 0-1 differences: 72 players 1-2 differences: 70 players 2-3 differences: 40 players 3-4 differences: 18...

viper

Leagues that do not allow trading makes the draft more important for several categories. You can find one-trick ponies who are speed merchants on the waiver wire. Don't look for any 20+ HR hitters available - I actually doubt there are any 15+ either. This is a major factor in making sure you draft ...

viper

got the OK to post this general stuff. What I was saying was there are several players whose projections vary by more than a tier. I'm a SGP person but applying it the both site's projections, what I am looking at is just differences. I find my general ranking of players using Mastersball projection...

viper

one thing is please keep the home page the way it is. I find it as neat and uncluttered as any there are. You can quickly get to where you want to be without having to read through endless trash or scroll down for what you want. I even like the color scheme. I'm sure it could be enhanced with multip...

viper

Part of me agrees and part says "who cares". No part of me says "you are wrong". I find the key is to have specific forum areas for these types of questions. This way the forums you and I want to read can be read and those we are not interested in can be ignored. Each time I go t...

viper

I think the question to really to determine what sort of target you are shooting for. Looking at old league results is great but is it really a worthwhile task unless you are going to some type of detailed analysis on it. I use it for regression in my SGP stuff but that's really about it. Multiple y...

viper

there needs to be a place to talk about projections and similar "boundary" topics. If there isn't, then Todd and Gary will have an awful lot of PMs concerning these issues. If it cannot be in the public forum, then it needs to be in a subscriber forum. The key is to limit that forum to &qu...

viper

First off, I hope a new Forum area dealing with projections will be started. Otherwise this General Baseball Topics area could get a bit cluttered. If it is made, please move this there. I'm a SGP person but applying it the both site's projections, what I am looking at is just differences. I find my...

viper

I like to visualize SGP differently. I believe there is a flaw looking at the last place team -and any team at either end of the category scores. Category dumping occurs and this artificially lowers the totals for the last place team. I prefer looking at the average score in a category. For example,...

viper

I haven't done it yet but I should run an analysis of 2 months of nothing & 4 months of Wieters compared to 6 months of the 17th best catcher. There has to be a point that Wieters is worth a bid and the question is just how much. This kind of falls into my thoughts that Utley may be undervalued ...

viper

two very long posts that have many people shaking their heads and saying "huh!"

It made sense to me.

viper

Before you say "absolutely" consider the league rules. This is a ten team AL-only league. It is not a keeper league. It is an auction league. And there is no bench but MLB player sent to the DL list or the minors can be reserved. The standard five hitting categories are used. We are drafti...

viper

As the mock draft concludes, I find it interesting how we are often times given conflicting pieces of advise and also the extent we become slaves to numbers which we all know are way less than etched in stone. And lest anyone think I am being critical of them, I am as bad of an offender as the next,...

viper

there is something about him that I just don't like. I can't put my finger on it but it is there. It's very unlikely I would ever draft him. Someone else can have his breakout season.

viper

ditto here. Apparently paypal has expended quite a bit.

viper

how did cwk sign up WITHOUT using paypal? I am confused

viper

also waiting for something other than paypal. had it once and after account was hacked, I swore off it

viper

I'll get my people to work on those signing tomorrow if that's OK

viper

after additional thought on the matter 1. the depth chart should be just that - a depth chart 2. for any tier ranking, I realize that I would just recreate it and add those things I am interested in to my personalized tier ranking. For me at least, the net effect is whatever you have will be modifie...

viper

I like the idea of AB or IP. Often you know a platoon will exists but the level of the platoon isn't clear. Assuming manny signs with the dodgers, they will have Manny, Kemp, Ethier and Pierre in the OF [play a few ABs for others]. Hvaing something liek LF: Manny (475) --- Pierre (250) CF: Kemp (550...

viper

I am interested. My son has a similar league without a draft date as of yet. He usually tries for a Saturday so this would not be a conflict. I have asked him to look for dates. Can I be added. I should know for sure in a week or two. If he does it on a Saturday, then i know there will be no conflic...

viper

questions on the rules: 1. no where in the rules does it say daily or weekly moves. If daily as you said, can you pick up a player on Wednesday morning and play him that evening or, if not then, on Thursday? 2. The mechanics in picking up waivered players and free agents is a bit unclear. Assume Dye...

viper

I have kept the final NFBC numbers or at least a subset of them. For example, with 25 teams I kept the 13th [midway between 1-25], the 38th, etc. When you get in the 12 category points through 6 category points range, the numbers are pretty consistent from year to year. You don't see so much a trend...

viper

My first two to three mock drafts are purely bookkeeping exercises. I use paper and tweek what I use each season. By using the fast mock drafts [45 seconds per pick] in MDC, I can determine exactly what I need to have on paper in front of me and what isn't helpful. An example is I now always have an...

viper

I play in one NL-only and two AL-only leagues where you have no bench. Only players officially on the DL can be reserved allowing you to get a replacement through he FAAB. If AROD goes day-to-day and sits for five days, all you can do is shrug. If Zimmerman underperforms, he is still a lot better th...

viper

you have no idea how much I hope you are correct. Since it will be his second year of arbitration, I'm sure Ryan does too. If he can get to 110 RBIs, it would mean that Guzman and, I guess, Milledge, will have good season wrt OBP.

viper

I have Nationals tickets and will be at 15 or so games this season. I have watched Zimmerman live and on TV for four years beginning with his September call-up. I have no idea how he is projected by the many sites but what I see is a great fielder who will never be anywhere above an average hitter u...

viper

what I'm saying though is that you move the closer(s) to your hitter budget but you also move dollars over. If you were normally 190/70, you would now be an augmented 210/50 assuming you move $20. It is really not a lot more than a new bookkeeping system but it is one that separate the "bully&q...

viper

It may have been something I did mentally but I don't think so. In my "only" leagues" I tend to want two closers but I plan a post on that subject shortly.

viper

I DVR-ed the Don Larsen Perfect game and plan to hold it for some time. To be honest, I recall watching the end of that game on TV so it must have been on a weekend. The Hot Stove segment at 7pm ET is not bad at all. So far it hasn't been the gushing over players and how everyone is wonderful and al...

viper

Time for some edge-of-the-box thoughts. We draft hitters and pitchers. We allocate our auction budgets in some type of percentages. The old standard was around 70/30 but the $200 hitting budget is closer to today’s thoughts and that would be a 75/25 mix. Looking at the pitching aspect of any ratio, ...

viper

Multi-positional players allow for flexibility and their value is not always totally appreciated until about five weeks into the season. Every league varies but here is what I worked out to be the NFBC style multi-positional guys. The NFBC requires 20 games from last season. They also have exception...

viper

People too often make selections based on name value. I attended Shandler's Arizona First Pitch forum. Although I didn't participate, I attended his annual 3-man draft contest breakout session. You have $50 in an auction league to buy three players. After each team has 3 players, Ron will run a stan...

viper

The Papelbon Plan can be found in the December Blogs. You will need to open up the December Blog file. Todd's Blogs started before the Forum was active so you may also want to check out the comments.

viper

last season I had Ortiz in both my AL-only leagues. Eligibility was just one game and I figured during inter-league play, he would get it. Alas, those were the days he was out with injury. While I could replace him while injured, I had to reactive him as soon as he was back. I went the whole season ...

viper

my NL only league requires 20 games at the draft so he would have to be a UT. However, it requires just one game during the season. As a catcher, he has lots of value. One game behind the plate gives him value. I guess he would get it sometime in April. Any reason to think differently?

viper

I'm not sure why you say he will be eligible at 1B. He played 41 games at several position but not 20 at any position. He will start as a DH/UT only in most leagues and then get other eligibility as the season progresses depending on that league's PT rules.

viper

but there are some leagues where saves from the waiver wires don't really exist - the NFBC being one. New closers do pop up but they are all risky and very expensive. Several times I have bid around $250 of my FAAB for a guy and lost out by over $100. I then watch this new closer get 1 or 2 saves an...

viper

there is such a huge problem with ADPs that I have questioned their helpfulness after about the halfway point in the ADP-ed draft. In order to keep drafts moving, there is a master list which takes over whenever a person leaves the draft. That master list can cause undo influence on the resultant se...

viper

things are a bit more active here than on other boards Todd used to be involved with.

viper

using financial modeling for success seems like less than a great idea right now

viper

and finally realize that chess is against one opponent with a known goal. In a fantasy draft there are multiple people drafting. Some may trying to do better in one category and other favor a different category. The variables are mind staggering.

God, I love this game.

viper

If all the projections were 100% correct, there would probably be a best pick at every turn but I seriously doubt if anyone would have the time. Plus, any best pick can be thwarted by bad picks by another drafter. Call this the VIPER Challenge . I have always wondered how a draft would turn out usin...

viper

Taking those two player based on scarcity is not exactly what Todd is suggesting. On the bigger scale, I think all Todd is trying to say is that it is not correct to willy-nilly take the best available player even if scarcity does not exist at the replacement level of a draft. I personally dislike t...

viper

I'm never sure which area is best to place these posts. Hopefully Todd will move them as he seems best. Todd's blog states correctly that replacement player scarcity, aside from the catching position, does not exist in NFBC sized leagues to include those 12+ leagues of AL-only and NL-only. That fina...

viper

At Ron Shandler's First Pitch Forum in Arizona this last October, stat services was one of the breakout sessions. I felt that Ron anticipated thisdiscussion to go in one direction but it clearly went somewhere else - to an extensive discussion on the good and bad things of the few sites people used....

viper

When we draft, we typically have benchmarks we try to obtain. In hitting, these can serve us well. I feel a goal in hitting is to never make a player move. If I draft a team that goes uninjured, I will never need to use a replacement level player. Every week we use a replacement level player, our ov...

viper

bigjonempire wrote:I love using tiered drafting. It makes drafting a cinch. If you haven't used it, once you do, no other method will make you as happy.

Drafting a fantasy baseball team is never a cinch. That is a concept I have never heard on the NFBC board.

viper

I like the specific breakdown of that Forum discussion areas. Hopefully, you will feel free to move questions to the proper place if they are incorrectly posted. "Trade questions", "Rate my team requests" and the like should be in specific areas. I suppose new areas will be added...

viper

I like the idea of tiers. I have been a victim of my lists to some extent these past few years and want to change to a less rigid drafting style. I await any article on drafting with tiers. I have some question I hope will be addressed. 1. Assuming you are drafting and the current tier is nearly dep...

viper

Posting in Strategy & Theory seems correct for me. And January 1, is late enough to start. Todd, you have previously stated that the Home Runs category correlates to winning leagues better than the other categories. Without looking all that closely to any projected home run totals for your draft...

viper

Glad that things are like they should be. Good luck Todd and I hope to have lots of insightful articles. Damn it's great that baseball is just around the corner.

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