Mastersball Fantasy Forum

aburt19

The news doesn't seem to be getting any better for him. Texas has re-opened negotiations with him to see if they can sign him to a one year deal for reasonable money. Nolan Ryan is quoted as saying "You'd love to have that bat, another right-handed bat on the bench or him DHing when Michael You...

aburt19

Speaking of which, I have a HUGE update to get ready to post for the Platimum subscribers :mrgreen: Good luck figuring out the Toronto playing time. They've got about three or four players who should be playing DH (Lind, Napoli, Rivera and maybe Encarnacion). Dividing up playing time there is nothi...

aburt19

I'm surprised that they sign both. The reports indicate that the Rays will use Damon in left and Manny at DH. With Damon's defensive deficiencies, I think that they will find that to be unsatisfactory. Jennings and Joyce are the obvious losers here until the Rays decide that Damon can't hack it in l...

aburt19

I think he will get a contract somewhere - he was good last year.....BUT it depends not only on team needs but his demands (which will dip lower as we move along the calendar) There was a rumor a few days ago that he was negotiating with the Angels but current views have them signing Podsednik (wou...

aburt19

I having been watching to see if I saw anything regarding Vlad being close to signing, negotiating with a team, deciding to retire :) , etc., but haven't seen anything. Have I missed something? There appears to be only two teams that are contenders that don't have a DH, Tampa and Los Angeles, if the...

aburt19

One change for the latest update on the pitching CVRC. R. Soriano still shows 35 saves, which with Mariano there isn't going to happen. Darn it, sorry. I'll wait a couple hours to see if there is any more word on Fuentes to Oak and then post an update. UPDATE - done deal with Fuentes, I will update...

aburt19

One change for the latest update on the pitching CVRC. R. Soriano still shows 35 saves, which with Mariano there
isn't going to happen.

aburt19

Thanks. In most of my years of playing this game, I have never seen such a spread between inflation for pitching and hitting. I agree that there isn't a linear relationship and can adjust for that. But the difference between a 29% inflation rate and a 55% inflation rate is about $8 on what would be...

aburt19

Thanks. In most of my years of playing this game, I have never seen such a spread between inflation for pitching and hitting. I agree that there isn't a linear relationship and can adjust for that. But the difference between a 29% inflation rate and a 55% inflation rate is about $8 on what would be ...

aburt19

I understand how to calculate inflation. But the question is whether inflation should be calculated separately for pitching and hitting. I'm in a 10 team AL only league. Due to a lot of pitchers that are carried over at bargain prices, if I calculate the inflation rate for pitchers separately, it co...

aburt19

I saw that someone from the front office at Minnesota said that the Twins were "optimisitic" about his status for the season. When it's been six or seven months since the concussion and the front office is just optimistic, that doesn't make me real confident about Morneau's prospects for 2...

aburt19

Brad Penny just signed with Detroit and I notice that he is not included in the projections.

aburt19

Are they really property of KC or is KC just a holding team until NY buys them after they have a good season :P :P :P That doesn't happen until they become arbitration eligible or free agents. :lol: If memory serves, it's Billy Bean over in Oakland who uses KC as his second farm system (Dye and Dam...

aburt19

50 Desert Eagles wrote:Are they really property of KC or is KC just a holding team until NY buys them after they have a good season

That doesn't happen until they become arbitration eligible or free agents.

aburt19

Living in Kansas City, I almost fell out of my chair when I saw there were four, count 'em, four Royals on the Top 10
list!!! On top of that, Montgomery wasn't even one of the four!

I'll dream tonight about the 2014 World Series.

aburt19

aburt19 - tell me Why Dan Johnson is absolutely not the answer at 1B? He may not work out - but he may. He had excellent minor league numbers in the Oakland organization and then fell on his face....but as I noted last season, his career numbers parallel Carlos Pena very well - if the Rays have the...

aburt19

I actually think Tampa needs 2 more bats as I don't see Dan Johnson as a full-time first baseman. That said, pickings are slim, with Troy Glaus and Jorge Cantu making the most sense from a platoon sense, though I would think either would play against a lot of righties as well. Casey Kotchman is out...

aburt19

There are four teams that could sign a DH, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Los Angeles. I agree that Tampa is the most likely. With the signing of Lee, Scott won't play 1B and will DH. Minnesota could depending how they feel about Morneau's health. If they do, I think there's a good chance Thome...

aburt19

Thanks. I agree for most of the free agents. But a player who is strictly is DH, such as for Vlad, I figure that an AL
team is the only option for him. That means that overall there are too many AB calculated for whatever teams signs him,
but it still gives an estimate of his value.

aburt19

Thanks for the update on the CVRC. I noticed that Vlad Guerrero is not listed among the players. Normally I don't include free agents in the calculations because it's always possible that they will sign in the NL. But I'm fairly confident that no one will sign Vlad as an OF, so I feel fairly confide...

aburt19

And the Royals are not interested in trading Soria - he has a very friendly contract that runs through 2014 IIRC and they are gearing up to compete for the AL Central in 2012 or 2013 so they will need a closer if successful. I see a lot written about why the should trade him or that they must be th...

aburt19

I noticed that Kevin Gregg is not listed among the pitchers on the CVRC. Since the word is that he has signed a $10mil, two year contract with the Orioles, I would assume that he at least starts the season as closer. I understand that the projections were before the signing, but assumed he would be ...

aburt19

I wasn't sure if this was the proper forum for this since it wasn't technically an "article" I had a question regarding the second or third item on the Royals that said they could sign a veteran inexpensive closer. Is that based the fact that Soria is expected to be traded? If not, I can g...

aburt19

I don't know why this would make a difference, but when I save the files before I begin working on the files, everything
works.

Thanks.

aburt19

I guess I must be doing something wrong. I took the CVRC for pitching and made the following changes. 1. Changed the league to AL 2. Changed the number of teams to 12. I left everything else the same. The pool size remained at 135. When I clicked on the click for values, it goes to values tab every ...

aburt19

Thanks for the 2011 projections from a non college football fan. It gives me something to look at on January 1st. One problem that I noted on each CVRC. On the pitching file, I changed the selection to AL and the number of teams to 12, but the player pool section listed in the blue area to the right...

aburt19

Just when you think that the projections might be settling down a little, it's being reported that the A's are going to
designate Jack Cust for assignment and keep both T. Buck and J. Fox.

aburt19

Just to piggyback on what Chris has replied, I do the 2-start piece for mlb.com (a quick quip on all the starters projected to have 2 starts the following week). Because of editing, etc., I need to have it filed to them Thursday night/Friday morning. As you can imagine, there are some last second c...

aburt19

I was curious about Mike Sweeney not having a projection. He's probably not going to play a ton, so it might not make
much difference. I had heard he was going to make the team.

aburt19

This may have been brought up in another thread. You increased the innings for C.J. Wilson to show that he is a starter,
but left him with 11 saves.

aburt19

One question and one comment on the March 25th projections. Garrett Atkins lost AB and Ty Wigginton gained AB. Is this based on comments by Orioles management or not? Alberto Callaspo AB are too low. Rotoworld had a comment from the Royals manager in the last couple of days where he said that he was...

aburt19

I guess it all depends on context. In a 10 or 12 team AL only league, Meche definitely has value, if healthy. In a 10 team
league his value is somewhere around $5-$8.

aburt19

Rotoworld is reporting that Meche felt tightness in his shoulder during his outing.

Is the combination of this news, his injury last season and his spring training stats with a lack of strikeouts a case where
the ST stats may show that he should be downgraded?

aburt19

It's not the money per year that I question, it's the length of the contract. Mauer has not been the picture of health and
catchers just get dinged up. I would have rather done and additional $2 million a season and signed him for five years.

aburt19

Just when you up the playing time projection for Ian Kinsler, he now has a high ankle sprain and is out for about a week. It's not that the injury affects him for the regular season. It's just another data point that he does seem to get injured a lot, even if the injuries are non-recurring one (i.e....

aburt19

Lawr, I agree that at 9 bucks according to MB projections that Chone is undervalued. And with kinsler at 2b and some other boppers in the lineup, you can play Figgy at 3rd...But with figgy at 3rd, you simply cant own a MI of Asdrubal and bartett at the same time... I can't agree with this. If you g...

aburt19

It's not a big deal because it is something that can be changed by the user, but Mike Lowell has a desination of N instead
of A.

aburt19

Lawr, I agree that at 9 bucks according to MB projections that Chone is undervalued. And with kinsler at 2b and some other boppers in the lineup, you can play Figgy at 3rd...But with figgy at 3rd, you simply cant own a MI of Asdrubal and bartett at the same time... I can't agree with this. If you g...

aburt19

Captain Hook wrote:Below is my NL LABR team - full article will be blogged in later this week

CI - Blalock $2 (pleeeeeease sign with Florida not Tampa)

I think that ship has already sailed. Rotoworld is saying that Blalock signed a minor league deal with the Rays.

aburt19

Todd Zola wrote:It is complete conjecture with respect to the closer.

I don't think you can absolutely rule out Jesse Crain either.

And if they play matchups, Mijares is in the picture.

My question is which fortune teller you are going to before you split up the saves at this next update.

aburt19

With his performance in the playoffs, it makes me wonder if this injury dates back to then and was the cause of that
performance. Latest is that he's going to meet with James Andrews, which is never a good sign.

aburt19

Todd Zola wrote:couple quickies...

D Lee getting no respect

Not everyone so concerned about Morneau

IF Morneau plays a normal spring schedule (50-60 AB) and shows no lingering after effects from the injuries, does you
plate appearance number for him change?

aburt19

Thanks. I wasn't looking for someone to blame. Too many times, I find that there are things that are on the site that I
just don't see and figured it probably was me.

aburt19

I was wondering about the player profiles. I wasn't sure if I was missing where it was at or whether there was a hold up
in posting it.

Thanks.

aburt19

Yesterday, there was a report on Rotoworld that the Indian's manager said that Branyan would play almost full time and that LaPorta would as well in the OF. If he follows through on that, it looks like Brantley will also taking a serious playing time hit since the outfield would be Choo, Siezmore an...

aburt19

Speaking of Austin Jackson, is he really ready for the majors? The Tigers seem to be fairly committed to giving him the job coming out of ST. But if he bombs badly, I would think that Detroit will have to do something else since they will at least be in the hunt for the Central Division title. I wo...

aburt19

Thinking about it a little more, lineup position may impact his opportunity. The word from the club is AJax leads off with Damon second. There are MANY that believe it will be Damon then Sizemore. All else being equal, I think he has more chances batting before Sizemore than he would before some co...

aburt19

i'd be very surprised if he got to 20 sb this year. speed is a skill of the young, as ron shandler says. I agree with that. But stealing bases is not entirely about speed. There are lots of fast guys who are not good base stealers. They can't read pitchers, they get bad jumps, etc. There have also ...

aburt19

Thanks for all the hard work. I sometimes disagree with the conclusions, but you do give reasons for your assessment
and it is nice to hear another viewpoint.

Thanks.

aburt19

The February 15th CVRC has a problem with the PPOS. For example, Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter have a PPOS of 2B.
I noticed it when I went in to change positions to a 2 pool system.

aburt19

Some interesting things on the most current update of the projections. Kevin Gregg shows 0 saves with the saves being split between Frasor and Downs. Gary Matthews Jr still shows as an American League player with Los Angeles. The acquisition of Orlando Hudson impacted Punto more than Alexi Casilla. ...

aburt19

I can understand the applicability to mixed league or shallow only leagues. But 12 team AL only is another matter. There may be some applicability to positions that have players right at the edge of being rosterable (such as OF). But for the middle infield and catcher, it's different. If I have Kins...

aburt19

however, say i do get alex gordon (and he is a perfect example of a guy who will be undervalued, and, as such, if he hits .275-15-70, will likely be a serious bargain) for $5, and through the middle of june he is hitting .287-13-45, well, he has pretty much made what i projected for when i paid. wh...

aburt19

There are more questions now than there will be in a month - always the case. The marginal teams (trying to stay PC here) are more difficult to project, but even "big market" teams - like the Mets situation at first base is tough to unravel. Fortunately we don't have to do that for over 9...

aburt19

I guess the point I was not-so-eloquently trying to make is: Naming who's going to be on the roster is not all that difficult, how the PT is going to settle out (here and in OAK, for example) is. With the exception of maybe DeJesus, none of these guys screams "everyday player" to me. That...

aburt19

I nominate the Royals. They have very few players that are sure fire starters. The rest are a bunch of questionable players that have enough problems in their game that they can be replaced in the lineup with another player with a different set of problems. That may be offset by the fact that very f...

aburt19

I am joining a new 12 team AL only league and have in the past played in 10 team AL only leagues. I was trying to set up category goals and noticed that there was a huge variance between years in some categories. Home runs for the 12 teams in 2009 was 2407, while in 2008 & 2007 the total home ru...

aburt19

It's not a big deal, but Gary Matthews, Jr. still shows as being with the LAA instead of the NYM.

aburt19

I play in a strange league that has only 4 OF, but 2 UT. In the setup, I set the number of OF for a 12 team league at 48 and the UT at 24. But the roster page only shows one UT player instead of a UT1 and UT2. What am I doing wrong? ETA: Does the software allow entry of players into positions for wh...

aburt19

We would have to give Connor Jackson 50 SB with his winter ball performance. I wouldn't want to do that. He pretty much stole a base a game this winter. I'm not suggesting that stats from winter ball necessarily reflect what they would be in the majors. In the case of Liriano I don't pay too much a...

aburt19

What Gary said as far as projections go, but in a way, it is "our job" to let the paid subscriber know what you just related to us as far as his recent outing goes. It was actually available to watch over the Internet and talking to someone who saw it, the word is his slider was BITING. P...

aburt19

This is a really dumb question, but I wanted to know whether spring training/winter ball results are considered at all in the projection process or if it is simply a process using the last three years stats weighted appropriately, age of the player, etc.? For example, reports are that Francisco Liri...

aburt19

Don't forget that Thome is at 564 home runs and was on pace to hit 30 before he was traded to the Dodger and got hurt. There is incredible motivation for him to hit the 600 home run mark. I think Young is just squeezed out completely. I think that Young gets squeezed some. But I can't see the Twins...

aburt19

There are reports that Randy Winn has signed with the Yankees for "around $2 million". That would probably mean that Damon will not be returning. It's a curious signing. Brett Gardner is a left handed hitter. Winn is a switch hitter, but had horrible numbers against left handed pitchers, h...

aburt19

It does make the AB in Minnesota a little more crowded. I would tend to agree that Young may lose some AB against right handers with Kubel playing the OF and Thome at DH. An additional complication is that the Twins like to use Mauer at DH to give him a half-day off and keep his bat in the lineup. I...

aburt19

Just as in fantasy, it depends on the price. Although I agree with the logic, seems to me that they overpaid. The same thing will likely present itself in many roto auctions. If he's going for $10, sure, worth the gamble. If $20, count me out. I agree. I think that someone will base the price that ...

aburt19

Reports are that Ben Sheets was signed by Oakland for somewhere in the $8-$10 million range. Sheets has been healthy for a full season only once in the last five years. There would seem to be two reasons for Billy Beane to do this. First, he thinks that Oakland has a chance to win the division. Seco...

aburt19

Yes to the weights. The other thing to keep in mind, and I should have included this in the earlier response, is we are still dealing with an incomplete player pool, especially for single leagues. If a 1B eligible guy signs, (Branyan, Blalock, Garko, Tracy amongst others are still available), they ...

aburt19

This is EXACTLY why my crusade this off-season has been to seriously discount the notion of a "DOLLAR VALUE" and look at the player in terms of relative worth to other players in his position and to other positions, which can still be gleaned from the information. Basically, I have seen p...

aburt19

I'm having trouble figuring out the logic behind the CVRC when making changes. Just a couple of examples. Using the positions shown in the set up page, changing the BA from the default to the average of my league, and with the SB at .8, HR to 1.2 and everything else 1, when I change one player from ...

aburt19

agreed again, in that those players--butler, dejesus--are usually a little undervalued. that should make grienke interesting in the coming year. but,they also have a hard time assembling a dominant year. grienke as the example you cited. what would his totals be like were he a yankee or dodger thou...

aburt19

I'm just the opposite. Many times the player on a bad team, like the Royals, will go for less than actual value. I will take Billy Butler all day if being on the Royals holds down his value. Alberto Callaspo, assuming he doesn't lose playing time is another example. That has it's limitations because...

aburt19

I just noticed in the CVRC that Mike Lowell is not listed at all. Is this an oversight? I know that with Beltre on board, Lowell will not play with Boston. But the time frame for his recovery was thought to be six to eight weeks. Given that Boston tried to trade him and was eating most of his salary...

aburt19

Ah, the Royals! The team that made collecting slow afoot, adequate 1B/DH types at any one time on an active roster into an art form: Their big off season trade was to get rid of one of their few productive bats in Teahen in return for two players they really needed - 2B Chris Getz and 3B/OF Josh Fi...

aburt19

Using CVRC with a 12 team AL only league with the custom settings of 24 catchers and 144 OF, I end up with only 20 catchers with positive value. There are four or five catchers that are shown with $0, so it's not a big deal. I just wondered if there might be something that I am doing wrong. There ar...

aburt19

Thanks for the quick response. I look forward to reading those articles.

aburt19

I am joining a league that has deeper reserve rosters with 8 reserves in addition to the normal 23 man roster (12 team league. As a result, a decent number of those reserve players taken will be minor leaguers. Will there be information on minor league players available to Platinum subscribers? Than...

aburt19

One of the many things that separates the Yankees from about every other team is they don't save money back for a specific player like Mauer. If that type of player becomes available, they would just go out and bid for him. Part of the reason for that is that they normally have a player or two comi...

aburt19

One of the many things that separates the Yankees from about every other team is they don't save money back for a specific player like Mauer. If that type of player becomes available, they would just go out and bid for him. Part of the reason for that is that they normally have a player or two comi...

aburt19

I was curious regarding the projection for Brett Gardner. It remains low with only 261 AB. I was curious as to the rationale behind the projection. The Yankees are saying publicly that any free agent that they pick up will probably be a right handed hitter and would be a platoon partner with Gardner...

aburt19

One other question on the pitching CVRC. When I enter an ERA and WHIP above the default value that is shown, that number does not change to the same as what I entered. But on the hitting CVRC, when I enter a BA different than the default, the number changes to what I typed in. Should the default nu...

aburt19

One other question on the pitching CVRC. When I enter an ERA and WHIP above the default value that is shown, that number does not change to the same as what I entered. But on the hitting CVRC, when I enter a BA different than the default, the number changes to what I typed in. Should the default num...

aburt19

I was messing around with CVRC for pitching. The spreadsheet comes up as a 15 team mixed league. The default setting for a 15 team mixed league for ERA is 4.424 and for WHIP is 1.414. When I change it to a 12 team AL only league the default setting for ERA is 4.292 and for WHIP is 1.384. Given that ...

aburt19

Thanks. Everything works when I follow those instructions. I'm commissioner of the league and am hoping that this will
make it easier on draft day. I have trouble keeping track of my own team because of the work of being the commissioner.

Thank you.

aburt19

I've been playing with the latest draft worksheet and seem to have some trouble in getting some of the change functions to work. If I want to change a player from one team to another one, it changes the main page for both teams as far as number of players needed, $ spent and left to spend, etc. and ...

aburt19

Rotoworld had a report that Chavez said he wasn't going to play the field more than three or four times a week. With his injury history, that's probably a stretch. I also haven't seen Fox play 3B. But I think that someone is going to have to play the position for at least 80-100 games. Whether it's ...

aburt19

I voted 500-550 PA. With no extensive track record, almost any projection is a guess. I agree that he probably won't be on my team. But if for some reason the bidding stops at the range that represents 500-550 PA, I might go the extra buck just because of what the upside is. I don't think that will ...

aburt19

A typical league has about $100-$130 worth of players that go from $1 - $3. This is true in a keeper league as well, maybe even more so as great keeper lists lead to more stars and scrubs. The main point is there is depending on the initial inflation rate, the inflated cost of these players would b...

aburt19

I was wondering about inflation in a keeper league and whether to apply it on an overall basis or to apply the inflation rates of pitchers and hitters separately. Applying the inflation rate separately is probably the most accurate. But I don't think that most owners calculate the inflation rates se...

aburt19

Isn't Branyan a free agent and that is why they got Kotchman, so that they wouldn't be stuck with Carp at 1B?

aburt19

One other thing that I wondered about. Victor Martinez is listed at only 1B and not catcher. I would think that any player
with positive value that could qualify at catcher would be put at that position.

aburt19

That's because I'm going to be out of town on business for the next three days and need something to do during the plane
rides. It also doesn't hurt that I have no life

.

aburt19

In setting the player pool to a single pool, it says too enter OF into F2 (QPOS). But QPOS is column D, not F. Do I change
the QPOS (column D) or column F (PPOS)?

aburt19

I'm not sure how Zen calculates its values but I really like them! It gives higher dollars than the more conservative other systems did for my specific leagues. The only question I have now is: The top 7 pitchers are closers for one of my leagues (6x7 with 5x5 plus OPS/Holds/Innings pitched). Is th...

aburt19

If it gets done on the CVRC, I'm fine with that. My league is a ten team AL only so that projected dollar values already out
aren't as meaningful to me, although the projections certainly are.

Thanks.

aburt19

I changed the percentage of the budget being spent on hitting from 70% to 68%, which more closely follows the past experience in my league (10 teams). The total for hitters should have been 1768 (68% of 2600). But the total for the hitters page was 1753 or $15 too low. The pitching side was 845 when...

aburt19

No problems and I'm running Excel 2003. I did change a number on saves for Mariano Rivera just to see how the calibrate
worked on changing the values and it worked fine.

aburt19

Not a big deal because well, it's January 1st. But it looks like the signing of Mike Gonzalez by the Orioles didn't get in the
projections. I would think that he might take over as closer from Jim Johnson.

aburt19

[quote="GaryJ"]Back from Christmas break. As Todd says I will be completing a thorough site piece soon on the regression process. However, we can discuss Howell here for now. Our methodology for dealing with pitching projections has changed somewhat from 09 to 10 so for now lets ignore the...

aburt19

I'm not that conversant with "regression analysis", so I'll ask a dumb question or two. What is it that you are regressing? BABIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, ERA, WHIP or what? :? Does it really make sense to use the same regression for the entire population? Is the same regression done on the hitte...

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