Mastersball Fantasy Forum

brooklyn49

Todd - Missing from the discussion so far is how well this strategy worked for you last season. Did it meet expectations?

brooklyn49

A quick follow up inquiry. Most notably missing from the tiers is Rich Hill. I understand the IP threshold, however, Hill's projection is the same as Clayton Richard and carries a much lower ERA and higher K's. Was Hill an oversight or are there other reasons to exclude him among the tiers?

brooklyn49

Thank You Todd.

I will make similar adjustments to my Closers and Set-Up guys (as my league has Holds as a separate category).

Side Note: Over the last 10 years, a 10th place pitching finish in ERA in a 12 team league with saves and holds, has averaged a 3.46 ERA. Definitely in the ballpark.

brooklyn49

I'm going to try thinking about my draft using Todd's "A New Look at Pitching Tiers" approach. But first, I need a little clarification. Let's agree SP1 has a target ERA of 2.10; SP2 has a target ERA of 2.79. Using the 2/12/17 projections, there are no SP1. However, I can see three ways of...

brooklyn49

Thanks Perry

brooklyn49

With both Lucroy and Jaso on the DL, I have to go fishing for a Catcher. Our league only plays 1 catcher, but pickings are slim. Can I get Mastersball's thoughts on thinning my list of alternatives from the following available Free Agents: Brayan Peña J.T. Realmuto Ryan Hanigan Kevin Plawecki Franci...

brooklyn49

Team Management suggestions: 1) Jose Valverde is my #3 closer. Jim Johnson was dropped. Is Johnson worth a shot on waivers (I have lowest priority) or is he now buried in the closer by committee? 2) Need 3 SP from a candidate pool of Porcello, Kluber, Smyly, Nolasco, Quintana and Straily. Rostered K...

brooklyn49

I am going to have to constructed a closer staff from scratch. Yep, I whiffed on every closer during the draft. Would appreciate a recommendation on an approach, an information site, or what to look for (other than the daily injury report) for emerging closers. Its going to be too hard to win the le...

brooklyn49

I'll try to remember that

brooklyn49

Office computer recently upgraded by IT to Windows 7 and Excel 2007. Pitching CVRC still works for K's, but switching to K/9 or HR/9 generates a #REF message in the baseline box regardless if I enter a value or leave it as default. Any solution to this or am I limited by whatever security block exis...

brooklyn49

Can roster 6 Starting Pitchers. Categories: Wins, Quality Starts, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K's and HR Allowed. Not off to the greatest start.... Current staff: 1. Chris Sale 2. Gio Gonzalez 3. Jarrod Parker 4. Homer Bailey 5. Jamie Garcia 6. Marco Estrada I had planned to wait until Todd's "rest of yea...

brooklyn49

Looking for a SP to fill the spot created by Halladay going on the DL. The top free agents I am considering are Roy Oswalt, Drew Hutchison or Justin Masterson. Advice sought.

brooklyn49

The CVRC provides recommended category weights for standard 5 x 5 leagues (eg 1.35 for HR). For non-standard categories, is there a methodology for determining a more appropriate weighting factor? For example, in my league, BB is a category which would seem to correlate with HR. Giving it a weightin...

brooklyn49

Are the rest-of-year projection done for 2011?

Note: It was last year on this date that I asked the same question and, while I never did see an answer, the fact there were no more updates sort of made it obvious. But I thought I would ask again out of habit.

brooklyn49

Todd Zola wrote:Hitting late afternoon. I'll have a better idea with pitching once the hitting is up.

What's your best guess?

brooklyn49

brooklyn49

How difficult would it be to include a tab with the final raw stats?

brooklyn49

Maybe over the Labor Day weekend; or are we done for the year?

brooklyn49

Gents - with waiver deadlines and call ups in the near future, what is the schedule for posting projection? My DL list continues to grow and I am forced to look for players outside my usual range for consideration. I am following the shopping cart and other posts, but would appreciate a start of Sep...

brooklyn49

Ready whenever you are

brooklyn49

As my DL grows, I look forward to something soon. Maybe this week?

brooklyn49

If I employ Todd's methodology, the MR's who have been lights out for the last month or more are:

Jose Veras
Frank Francisco
Rafael Betancourt
Sergio Romo

Thoughts?

brooklyn49

The issue with Motte is that LaRussa shares the set-up responsibilities with Kyle McClellan being the primary guy followed by Motte and Miller. In Atlanta, Cox has gone with Venters as his primary, then Saito (nasty ERA of late) and Moylan So, in addition to who has the primary set-up role, it is, a...

brooklyn49

Jonny Venters became eligible today off the free agent list. Still Motte?

brooklyn49

Klye McClellan Jason Berken Sergio Romo Grant Balfour Brandon League Jason Motte Dan Wheeler Edward Mujica Seem to be the best group of candidates available on waiver wire. Obviously, Holds are important, but not at the cost of ERA or K/BB. Don't know that much about Berken; McClellan, while not ver...

brooklyn49

The passing of greatness, regardless of sport, deserves a moment to be recognized, remembered and honored.

"Baseball was always my first love. That's my favorite sport." - John Wooden

brooklyn49

Upside Hitting Projections for Garrett Jones surprised me a little as did that for Maicer Izturis. Conversely, the projected drop for Ordonez is disappointing. But what really raised an eyebrow is the projection for Nolan Reimold (I recall last year's assessment of Delmon Young). Why the optimistic ...

brooklyn49

Will we be able to play with new projections over the 3 day Memorial Day weekend?

brooklyn49

thank you

brooklyn49

brooklyn49

I'm in last place in SB which may be the only category keeping me from a legitimate shot at winning the league. After inquiring about Ellsbury in trade, I was surprised by the offer of Ellsbury and Barmes for Kelly Johnson. To make room on my roster for the 2 for 1 trade, I also have to drop a playe...

brooklyn49

Still on schedule to plan?

brooklyn49

Lawr, thanks for sharing your perspective. I was sitting on the ledge, but I really wasn't going to jump. In two weeks, I expect to see you tossing tortillas at Bay to Breakers.

brooklyn49

OK, I admit it, I am a risk averse type of player. The reason for which is is not, in small part, because the other players really enjoy pointing out every mistake in judgment made. Another reason is because I have had some good luck going with the percentages. So, despite a bloated ERA, few Quality...

brooklyn49

Is his just a slow start or is this a return to the more difficult AL?

brooklyn49

I'm with you, what is the projection for McLouth? One owner in our league just ran out of patience and confidence in Nate and waived him. Given my league's categories, I had McLouth earning more than Loney, Coghlan or Swisher; all of whom I have in my lineup.

brooklyn49

Not sure if this is a democracy, but if so, then I vote "yes" on the going forward projections be they two weeks or two months apart. They make for a great heading check and might even save the staff time by reducing the number of inquiries about individual players.

brooklyn49

A lot of reports about the dissatisfaction in Milwaukee with Hart and how he might lose his OF position while Jackson has had a good spring and appears to be the everyday left fielder for Arizona. Hart has the higher projected combination of power and speed (HR and SB) numbers, but Jackson has highe...

brooklyn49

12 team, mixed league roto scoring. 9 hitting categories: HR, SB, RBI, R, BB, Hits, BA, OPS, Total Bases. I want to draft a 2B and 3B on my back to back 2nd and 3rd round choices to go along with Hanley Ramirez. Because of all the hitting categories, my valuation suggests: Pedroia, then Zobrist, the...

brooklyn49

This is a fascinating post and the first time I can recall the beginnings of a discussion of strategy dependent upon draft position. Also, it has been only recent that I've seen common reference to the wheel position in a draft although we have all described it by various term. I hope it will lead t...

brooklyn49

The positional tier sheets I've seen are simple to construct two dimensional - "position x $ Value" matrix. What does a Categorical Tier sheet look like?

brooklyn49

Shoot, Todd, I was hoping to meet you in person this year.

brooklyn49

I was referring to the results using the standard CVRC in addition to the 10 x 10.

brooklyn49

Neftali Feliz, a $2 pitcher in a standard 5 x 5 format, and a $3 pitcher in a K/9 variant, becomes an $11 pitcher if HR/9 is substituted in as a category. Although I haven't run a detailed assessment to measure the variance, it seems to me HR/9 has a disproportionate impact on player valuation relat...

brooklyn49

have we seen the last of the two start articles?

brooklyn49

I spot started Maholm yesterday, at home, against the Nationals. He did great, until....yup, he gave up the dinger, the lead, and the ballgame. Flyer is being kind as a description.

brooklyn49

12 teams, mixed league, daily transactions, Rotisserie league. 9 categories, but of most importance for starting pitchers are W, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, QS, HR Allowed. If you had to pick 4 or 5 in order from this list, how would you play it? Well, I sort of did. Regardless, thanks for your take on the...

brooklyn49

12 teams, mixed league, daily transactions, Rotisserie league. 9 categories, but of most importance for starting pitchers are W, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, QS, HR Allowed. First, let me cry the blues--lost Peavy, Lilly and Slowey to injury. Maybe Oswalt is headed to the DL too. Second, my apologies as I pr...

brooklyn49

On the ROY projections - I know they've been a lot of work. To tell the truth, I've hardly used them, despite being one who pushed for them. I think what would be a preferable solution (next year) for me would be to highlight significant projection changes weekly (i.e. role changes, playing time ch...

brooklyn49

any different considerations if your leading the league? Does one manage categories "as if" there are points to gain, or is this equivalent to killing the golden goose? We have all seen big leads dissapate in the month of September.

brooklyn49

Thanks for the great article, Todd. A follow up question: Are there circumstances under which additional normalizing of category management data is advisable? For example, if the last place team is just mailing it in or if they are not just punting a category but taking a safety (e.g. 1 save year to...

brooklyn49

It will not be an elixir for streamers. Beautiful choice of words, Todd. First the concept, then the theory, then the operationalizing, then the data collection, then the empirical testing, then the validation, and someday a high probability tool. Where are you in the process today? I'll take it.

brooklyn49

In lieu of the starting pitching posts, I have been doodling behind the scenes with a spreadsheet that numerically ranks each pitcher based on matchup. I have been using it to do the 2-start piece for mlb.com and have been pleasantly surprised by the results. I am hoping to be able to write up the ...

brooklyn49

Interesting question; one which we might look at yearly leaders in Complete Games to try to narrow down the answer: In 1963, Warren Spahn led the NL with 22 complete games, he had 22 the year before, and 21 the year before that. Marichal led the NL in '64 with 22 and in '68 with 30; Koufax had 27 in...

brooklyn49

Thanks, Viper. And a happy and safe holiday weekend to you and all the MB community.

brooklyn49

ROY project? I'm confused, we've been posting ROY projections all season. Now, now - why make sport of me because I can't type when there is so much from which to choose? Thank goodness someone on the staff can speak "illiterate". Yes, I do miss reading the daily thread. However, looking ...

brooklyn49

will there be a ROY project using the midpoint of the season as a basis? What a perfect use of my 4th of July weekend.

second question: was there a thread where weekly pitching matchups was discussed in terms of who would you choose if you had to spot start? Or am I misremembering?

brooklyn49

When is it time to consider trading for talented players having bad starts, and when does one consider that these talented guys may be having 'off-years' due to some combination of nagging injury, bad karma or _____ ? This is the interesting part of your question. When is it time to say enough is e...

brooklyn49

is this article still available to read on the site? I looked for it but couldn't find it. I wanted to print out a copy for future reference

brooklyn49

Todd Zola wrote:Questions like this should probably be in the site content section -- I will move it there later

Thanks, Todd. I wasn't exactly sure which section it belonged.

brooklyn49

While not in the very top tier of OF's, Delmon Young consistently has been projected as one of the better contributors in the ROY evaluations. 1 HR, 2 SB and 14 RBIs on the season is unimpressive to say the least. His BA, a major source of his projected value, has been .245, .250 and .105 for the se...

brooklyn49

Didn't draft a very good OF so have been trying to piece together a respectable group ever since. Now I am carrying just too many to play and its clogging my lineup and driving me crazy. I need 4 OF; one of them must have CF eligibility. Daily transactions, mixed league, 12 team; rotisserie scoring;...

brooklyn49

Just last Saturday I was trying to explain to my young son-in-law who Mark Fidrych was; why his candle burned so brightly; and how quickly his fame came and went. He can only imagine the great show that was Mark Fidrych.

brooklyn49

So I guess I would not drop him right away if I did not need to, especially because he has 1B and OF eligibility which could come in handy during Monday and Thursday, maximizing active hitters, one of my favorite ploys in daily leagues. I need the power and its not like there are a lot of good alte...

brooklyn49

And this after I drafted him last week...and now way too high it seems. Whaaa! Now it would seem the task is to determine if he is worth a spot on the bench in a daily transactions league.

brooklyn49

What role will Nick Swisher play that earns him 527 AB and 622 Plate appearances?

brooklyn49

If Gardner really is going to be the Yankees' everyday centerfielder, who would you rather have?

brooklyn49

I think Hanley Ramirez got dropped out of the projection pool.

brooklyn49

A different perspective - why do you have to do anything? Yes - technically there will be 50 additional guys in the player pool .... but they won't all be studs, right? Just for giggles, before making any changes - take any major site's projections list for a mixed league. Draw a line after the 250...

brooklyn49

adding MI to the mix will exhaust some of the surplus at a traditionally limited set of positions. If you specify that the 3 OF have to be one each RF, CF, LF that might do it too.

brooklyn49

1984, 6 team, 4 x 4, NL only, auction with $26 budget ($0.10 to the dollar) so we could all afford to play. Alas, none of the original players remain part of the modern day league.

brooklyn49

my first thing I do is run the players through "Paul" (I can't remember the current name). I come up with dollar values. I then take the top 15 players by dollar value Just a question of clarification; when you say you run the players for dollar values, is this before or after adjusting f...

brooklyn49

for better or worse, he's a Dodger!

brooklyn49

Cap'n - all I can say is "Go Bruins"!

brooklyn49

I thought I remembered something about an article on draft strategy too.

brooklyn49

is the auction tracker considered proprietary by Rob or can ViceREV share? I think I already know the answer.

brooklyn49

Looking at the updated projections. For the 12 team mixed league, there are 15 catchers valued at $1 or more. How does one interpret this?

brooklyn49

A league with an IP limit, daily moves but no SP/RP designation SCREAMS 6 or 7 relievers with 2 or 3 streaming starters. Todd - I want to make sure I understand your terminology. "Streaming" starters meaning? Off the waiver wire? Drafting a few top starting pitchers? Drafting mid range SP...

brooklyn49

My strategy was to.... and I think this is the what any category is all about. The categories effect the strategy you have to employ to win your league. There is nothing particularly sacred about Daniel Okrent's original 4 x 4 categories. The scenario presented regarding whether or not a pitcher ge...

brooklyn49

I am fairly well versed in excel and I need a K/BB ratio category instead of either of the choices now. The projection files have k and BB so would it be easy to modify the formula myself so that it replaces one of the other choices? IF it is fairly easy, could you tell me how. Thanks There was som...

brooklyn49

At any given point, you can consider the top-5 remaining players in that position to be of similar value and make your decision based on team needs in terms of statistics and balance. For clarification, when you say the top-5 remaining players in that position, are you reading down the playing posi...

brooklyn49

I'm on a 5 hour airplane flight tomorrow. I had planned to amuse myself by pouring over new platinum material. Please don't make me watch the in-flight movie; the last time I had to do that it was "Mama Mia" and I still can't keep down solid foods!

brooklyn49

I would like to see an essay on drafting in smaller leagues Noted -- I consider 12-team mixed Tout Wars a smaller league and I most definitely use different strategies. Things like 8 team AL or NL only also are smaller leagues Would you elaborate in the article on the extrapolation of the reasoning...

brooklyn49

Nothing like waking up New Year's morning and finding that there was one more present hiding beneath the tree...and it has a big tag with your name on it.

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