Mastersball Fantasy Forum

viper

We talk a lot about tiers in here but there really hasn’t been a thread on how we use them and some little tricks that may make them more useful. What I am talking about relates to using them in straight drafts, primarily the NFBC, but it would apply to all straight drafts. Using tiers in auction le...

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There are a bunch of possibilities and a few will go in the middle rounds but, in reality, there are seldom many rookies you are willing to gamble on when push comes to shove. Consider that your roster slots are all needed but possibly one or two. Who are the rookies you would hold in a redraft leag...

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I agree that the $40 would likely go to the top dozen players at about $3 to $4 a pop in auctions. I was thinking more about tiers for straight drafts.

viper

Everyone has different views on catchers. As a group their category contribution is down. The key here is this is the case for every one of them. I ran CVCR with all players as OF using the NFBC setup of 15 teams with two catchers each. This eliminated any Catcher scarcity. At the top end, there was...

viper

A needed thread. No list right now from me but generally I want a MR who: (1) Will help in ratio categories (2) has a chance to become the closer if an injury or ineptness occurs A 6th or 7th inning guy or lefty specialist are extremely important in real baseball but have marginal, if any, value in ...

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If ARod is dropped. what it technically means is that $40 dollars are spread among the remaining 209 positive valued position players. And one replacement player now is worth a buck. After Todd's comments I sat back and realized this was all it was. Of course now, we have a better take on the ARod s...

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no but the KFC formula of herbs and spices is

viper

if you did rows deletes, all hell will break loose. If you just deleted the data, it should have worked

viper

OKIE DOKIE

viper

I have come to the conclusions that I will not draft AROD unless he is there around round 10 [someone will take him earlier]. If I decide to just remove him from my lists, I feel I should also remove him from the stat computation process as if he was out for the entire season. Now if I removed the 4...

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IronMarshall - did you replace Todd's numbers with your own set? I have received the #ref once in a while when I think I did a bad drop. Starting from scratch and making sure I cleared just Todd's numbers before the drop always solved the problem. Of course, this is assuming you are changing things....

viper

Hambowen wrote:Kinda surprised you were able to get Kemp, Braun, and Markakis in a draft.

so was I

viper

"reaching" should be a whole article in itself. I have always felt that the key to a successful draft was taking players in an order which generally equates to what they bring to the table. I'm not saying "next best" but I would like each pick to at least be in that neighborhood....

viper

How can ALL those players be overdrafts based on ADP? Someone has to go in the 12 through 15th rounds. I personally am OK with a Lee, Berkman combo. the only downside is speed and they are on the same team, assuming that bothers you. Longoria that high isn't a function of what he brings statisticall...

viper

I did eight mock drafts to get ready for my first real NFBC draft. They were mostly just 23 rounds but two went the whole 30 rounds. They average about 90-100 minutes to completed. Reality set in last evening. The draft started at 7:00 sharp. It finished at 11:15 or maybe a bit later. In the mock dr...

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$126 pay top three league drafted last night. If you got the latest MDC ADP for Satellite leagues, this one was included. I can tell based on ARod going in the 12th round. Not looking for a rating as I can do that myself. I am a dedicated Bully hitting/Manage pitcher proponent. I look for a staff wi...

viper

I just finished a $125 NFBC Satellite League. AROD actually went at pick 12. At the six pick, I got Braun. The top five were hanley, Reyes, Wright, Pujols, & Lincecum (?). Coming back at round two I had my anticipated Markakis/Kemp choice. I selected Kemp. To my surprise, Markakis was still ther...

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My last several drafts have seen me key in on Braun. That very well could change. My initial choice was Sizemore or Braun and I agree that this may be made for me.

viper

My first NFBC draft is Thursday and right now I'm planning to leave all my values the same. New projections will reflect his signing but can we get a real Quick & Dirty on who is helped and who is hurt. I really don't know how Dodger Park relates to a neutral filed but I know it has always been ...

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Actually Dunn on team USA may be good for the Nats. They have a mess in the outfield with too many non-descript players fighting over two positions. They need to see the all play this spring although, aside from Willingham, they should mhave a good idea on each persons few skill and multiple weaknes...

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so we have blind squirrels giving directions to deaf dogs. As I often say, "It's a strange, strange world we live in, Master Jack"

viper

the great american nightmare is over

viper

yours was actually a honorary honorary degree.

viper

Bringing this thread back to life. In a new NL-only league I joined, I was temporarily assigned the team name Laddies. Well, that won't do. I've exhausted all my Babylon 5 names and wanted a new Buffy name, hence:

Buffy, the Umpire Slayer

viper

I've used a variation of SGP for a number of years. I have also followed Todd and Gary from the old Mastersball to FantasyBaseball and now back to the new Mastersball. After all these years, I am now only using Todd's valuation techniques. The reality of things are they don't differ enough from my o...

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but those things ought to be factored into a player's projections. Do you really want to double count that stuff. The only thing that could change projections would be a Manny addition in LA and I would guess that would be favorable to most not named Pierre.

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good question. I clearly have Kawakami on my radar. And having him mentioned as the 9th rated prospect by Jason Gray solidified that belief.

viper

hope that the lemmings all march over the cliffs

viper

my money says he is gone before the 40th pick regardless

viper

those four are all between 28 & 39 on the NFBC ADP I have. By that you will get just one of them.

viper

Good reason and it may explain a bit on why he is a fine wine that is opened before its time. It is amazing how many picks seem to be made based on name recognition and not cold harsh reality.

viper

in my 15 team mock drafts, these guys are really the best available. I've gone both way and the other player always goes within 2-3 picks. I'm trying to avoid drafting just on a "best available" priority but every other tier two player is an OF at this point in all my mock draft. I have ju...

viper

Projection for Pat Burrell seems a bit low in both MB and BBHQ. At least they both agree. He clearly goes a full tier [or more] in mock drafts. Is this because people are idiots or are other sites projecting much high numbers. He and Cust are the lowest draft-worthy big bashers on the table but stil...

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At least in mock drafts, Vernon wells is slipping about 1/2 a tier. This isn't a lot but it is consistent. Even in mock drafts you should draft like you might in a real draft. Having my first real draft on Thursday, I have been looking for stuff on Wells. Nothing shows him missing games but this is ...

viper

This choice seems to come up in the early third round picks. I have been opting towards Davis as he has more power. The dollar difference is meaningless so it seems to be a even choice. The question is that Youkilis has shown he should get what he projects to while Davis is going into his second yea...

viper

In almost every NFBC Mock draft I've been in, this decision comes up towards the end of round two [think pick 25-ish]. MB has Kemp slightly higher with the difference totally in the SB category as Markakis projects higher in all other categories. Is this pretty much a preference choice or is there a...

viper

What actually happens to the numbers when you change the default for ERA & WHIP? Will the relative position of players change or just the dollar amounts. I am trying to make a straight draft list of pitchers and am not overly concerned with actual dollar values. I can see how things change based...

viper

If you consider each player at the UT position [essentially the NFBC situation excluding catchers], it seems to me that a player's dollar number is just a reflection of the number of statistics they bring to the five categories. If I compare a $20 player to a $15 player, is the actual increase in st...

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I have some differences with some of the replacement assumptions used but this approach is actually better than my old approach. Plus, I can easily generate a multitude of variation by using CVCR - something I couldn't do before. I can simplify my spreadsheet but it will have to wait until after all...

viper

I guess what I discovered comes as no surprise and it was what I expected but here goes. I used CVCR for an NFBC leagues with a.280 batting average and 70% hitter budget. I ran numbers for an averaged set of projections using HR = 1.2 & SB = 0.8 and compared those results to HR & SB weights ...

viper

sounds reasonable to me. I'm trying to run six scenarios and see how players value is changed. I'm mixing Hr/Sb at 1/1 and 1.2/0.8 against players as all UT, CA/OF and by MVPOS. Interesting results. Oh, and I have been lured to that dark side by Lord Zola and am leaving any SGP calculating. I just n...

viper

I noticed that it changed. I wonder why would the factor change?

viper

I am trying CVCR variations on weighting -specifically comparing players values with all OF, CA/OF mix and normal position mix. After running the first two sets of dollar value I discovered that the value assigned to Runs and RBI slightly changes with both RBIs and Runs having a lower dollar value o...

viper

One thing that I have found very useful is to actually track what some of your leaguemates tendancies are. This is easy for me as I have built it in my own excel draft worksheet; basically when someone nominates a player and then winds up drafting that player my worksheet does a count on this. With...

viper

I see the same ADP. If I was "stuck" with Sizemore/Roberts, tears would not stream from my eyes. I don't see that much difference in Braun and Sizemore. I may agree that Braun is a slight bit better but the other side of the picture is what type of player is available the next time around....

viper

so far I have taken Braun in 2 mock draft. In both cases I felt I was chasing speed. In round two with the six pick [2.10], the only Tier one or two players left were OFs. Now I have nothing against two OF but my next choice was Kemp or McLouth in one league and Lee or Kemp in the other . In both dr...

viper

are the next set of projections put this weekend?

viper

ADP of 10th round or 20th round, I'm going 2nd or 3rd in both cases. To me, ADP is just a collection of picks by people I don't know or trust. As an NFBC participant, I received the ADP for the first 10 satellite leagues. This is the only ADP I will look at with any depth. I know this ADP reflects t...

viper

This is really a great question. It would be better if it was the 10th and not 20th round.

viper

I'm willing to take him in the the second or third at the latest rather than someone else totally luck into him. Even at round #2 I have an edge. Waiting is kind of like playing Russian Roulette with a 20 round chamber. Dirty Harry put it best when he said: You've got to ask yourself one question: '...

viper

essentially this player is Sizemore-esqe with a slightly better average. Since the scenario presented in impossible, I guess you are wondering how much we trust ADP, or better yet, how much we feel our other owners trust it. I for one am not married to ADP. If anything, I am married to my projection...

viper

I wait for Todd's answer but I understand this as if the replacement RUN total for a non-catcher is 40 but for a catcher it is 25 then that non-catcher gains value for ever run scored over 40 while a catcher gains value for each run over 25. If you look at the total pool as one singular position, it...

viper

My first Satellite League drafts on March 5 and I drew the 6th pick. This seems to be the first pick which isn't semi-determined. It is a pick that defines where you are heading. Most drafts start off with Pujols, Wright, AROD, Hanley and Reyes in some order. These guys seem to be above the rest. If...

viper

I think steals are tough to project. We all know that Jose Reyes is going to steal a bunch of bases but it could be 50, 60 or 70. Now the average NFBC total for SBs is about 140 or 10 per player. And here I am projecting a player whose SB totals could vary by as much as 20 with essentially an even c...

viper

for catchers, I tend to use a system that forces catchers above their UTIL values. CRCV does this but it still comes up with only 27 or so positive valued catchers in a 30 catcher league. My only straight draft leagues are three NFBC leagues. With no scarcity aside from catching, I use the CRCV vari...

viper

how much pitching you get from FAAB/waivers is an unanswerable question. FAAB/waivers is just an in-season form of bullying. To manage pitching requires a carefully constructed draft which allow you flexibility in roster moves. In the NFBC this is essentially a form of streaming to get one [or more]...

viper

In my currently drafting Dynasty league, the Jake Peavy owner just took Eric Byrnes and announced his new team name:

Byrnes when I Peavy

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Hardly the best but someone has to start this. I loved the Babylon 5 series so I use Centauri Prime Shadows of Z'ha'dum G'Kar's One-eyed Poets Got to love Buffy the Vampire Slayer so Buffy and the Scooby-Doo's also Cross-Handed Hitters Left-Handed Catchers and as a tribute to Todd, where I heard thi...

viper

First the bad news - the draft date has yet to be firmed up. It looks to be late March but no one knows yet. Still if you might be interested let me know by PMing me here. Particulars: 5x5 auction league many years in the making - this will be my 4th year IP replaces Ks 10 teams, 14 starters [normal...

viper

ESPN allows it and the situation it can be helpful happens twice every week. ESPN allows daily moves. ESPN legaue have a bench of three players. Assume you have two MRs you can keep or cut any time you want. Also assume you have a random catcher. Since ESPN has just one active catcher's slot, the ca...

viper

$1000 FAAB budgets seems high and are helpful for weekly starters. For that new closer that everyone bids on, i guess the total dollar amount isn't as important. I've seen several winning bids that exceeded $500. In the first year of the NFBC, after the auction, there are a late ST trade from the AL...

viper

This is really just for Gary & Todd - unless other spend time to do their own projecting.. Some categories are easier to project than others. Some you feel more confident in than others. I certainly feel that wins is hard to project but is it harder than ERA or SBs. Could you rank the 10 normal ...

viper

the ESPN tree falls quietly too

viper

I play in three "old days" league where your only reserve is a disabled player or one sent to the minors. Of course, you can cut someone to get that "hot" closer and that is your tough decision. I really enjoy all three of these leagues. When that C+ level player goes down and is...

viper

you may be trying to over-analyze things. But I admit, I go though some of the same thoughts.

viper

The Papelbon Plan is more designed to deep leagues. I will be doing one shallow league this season. My son has a 10-team mixed auction league. I'm not sure what my draft strategy will be but my current thought is a LIMA type staff and an aggressive Stars & Scrubs roster.

viper

If I have this right, your list shows Kemp ahead of Lee but most ADPs and specifically the CBS top 15 has Lee on it and Kemp not. Now you are up in the second round. You can (1) Take Kemp and never see Lee - assume this is the only option if you take Kemp (2) Take Lee and watch Kemp go before your n...

viper

I understand your point about trusting my lists, however if I draft players earlier than I need to I have wasted value. . Value is in the eye of the beholder. It seems as if you are drafting not to please yourself but to have others feel you did a good job. Forget about those others. If your list s...

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steve - in the straight draft NFBC would you follow the same strategy? Realize (1) there is no trading allowed (2) most of the obvious to semi-obvious closers-in-waiting get drafted, usually before their time, (3) most closers are gone after round 15 and (4) FAAB is used so all unexpected replacemen...

viper

I differ even more. Forget about ADP for anything more than a look see as to how others with probably less skills then you are viewing things. There must be some way to impose your own ranking list as your default list for the draft. Trust in your own lists. Do you have any way of knowing how CBS co...

viper

I am only participating in money leagues these days. Nothing big as my $250 NFBC satellite has the highest buy-in. However, I don't see why the Tout Wars should have any money involved. I won't even say that winning this league is all that matters. Winning a league is somewhat of a crap-shoot. I sus...

viper

not jumping the bid because you feel maybe you could get him for less seems like a defensive tactic. If you are that type of bidder, then continue of that way. Jump bidding seems to be an offensive move. It can backfire if you jump to far. In the end, you have to bid the way you feel most comfortabl...

viper

I'm new to auctions drafts - just entering my 4th year. A jump bid not only makes the person you are bidding against pause for reflection but it tends to remove outside competition who have kept quiet waiting for the auction to stall. They are looking for a bargain and can easily evaluate those $1 i...

viper

since I cannot spell con-cat-in-eight, I would do +B1&", "&A1

then copy the whole column to notepad

then copy the notepad version right over the place it came from.

This makes it something like "Zola, Todd" and it is a text entry without any references to anything

viper

as I recall, there was a switch in runs and RBIs last year at first.

viper

First off, CVCR will always be PAUL to me. I can't ever remember the initials CVCR. I guess in time I will. I was playing with some of the player pool options on the preloaded MB 2/1/09 numbers. I ran a standard NFBC set of projections [avg = .280 & 1.2 HR & .8 SB] and came up with a dollar ...

viper

This season I will be four straight drafts and 4 auction drafts. I think I actually want #1 but with certain pitching category values having less or more weight based on my league's past tendencies. I go in with paper so making on the fly adjustments are done based on my sense of what is happening. ...

viper

The problem resolved itself. By the time my pick came up, Andrus was gone and I was bit concerned about G. Beckham positional change - after all these guy are all prospects so who knows - so it became the tiebreaker. On the turn I took a pair of prospects in Tim Beckham and Madison Bumgarner. I don'...

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First, I see there are several new forums available. You may consider a CVRC forum. Second, could you datestamp your Platinum Plan Tool postings so all can easily see when something new arrives. CVRC questions: 1. What exactly are the fields that can be replaced with info which will not impact the c...

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Any thoughts on a SS prospect? These four seems to be the cream of the crop. Not sure how Andrus in Texas may fit with this group. It's for a dynasty league so I am looking at 2010/2011

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Dmitri's range is about the distance I sit from my computer. As bad as Dunn may play 1B, it is better than Dmitri. I have attended several games when Dmitri was "playing" 1B and pop-ups four feet behind him and two feet in foul territory are the responsibility of the 2B - and they know it....

viper

What is the impact in CVCR when the pool of players gets reduced. If you require 120 pitchers in your league and the pool is 180, will the valuations be much different from a pool of 300 players, assuming all the additional players were reserve level players and mostly lower reserve level. A similar...

viper

When working for Marriott Corporation back in the days when the IBM PC just came out, I told a VP that if you can explain it to me, I can do it. He never proved me wrong and we had a wonderful working relationship. My caveat was that there were many thing that could not be explained and computers/pr...

viper

The DC sports guys are speculating Johnson at 1B, Dunn in LF, Milledge in CF and Dukes in RF. But several are suggesting they may try Dukes in spring training in center some to see how he does. It is almost as if Willingham doesn't exists and he has the 2nd best OPS on the team after Dunn. Wily Mo a...

viper

On Santana, I guess the question to be answered is "what is the life expectancy of a starting pitcher?" Longer than a closer but less than 1B is probably the answer. Through 12 picks, I have but 4 pitchers and two were in my turn on round 11 & 12. Aside from looking at age a little mor...

viper

I am passing now. I joined a Dynasty league and I guess "Eight is Enough". I had never done a keeper league of any kind and always wanted to try it. The opportunity arose. Also, My son still hasn't set his league's draft date/time and I had to wait on that anyway. Thanks anyway.

viper

good night dick

viper

Why do I think the team Venezuela may not have the same concerns?

viper

I tend to use 3.90/1.30 as a guideline for ratios. I have a part-SGP, part-home grown method to evaluate a 4.00/1.28 guy but bottom line is that most SP/MR combos who are primarily MR will have non-positive ratios on my scale. Q&D formula is (ERA + (3* (WHIP))) .LE. 7.80. I tend to avoid pitcher...

viper

Some pitchers have dual eligibility - Chamberlain and Morrow come to mind. But using Chamberlain as a RP really means nothing as he probably could have been used in the starters role just the same. Streaming starters [grabbing free agents] isn't all that helpful with a 1750 limit. I would expect you...

viper

This seems to dovetail into the three projection polls. How do you want your dollar values presented to you? I tweak the pitching values using "PAUL" as my league grossly undervalues MR. Only a few go for more than $1 and they never exceed $3. I also have a great feel on what the league sp...

viper

yes, I care less about the WBC. What I am curious about is how participating i the WBC might impact their performance in the regular season. I recall it impacted Aylala's in that he tore something and was out for the year

viper

I don't see how the WBC would effect a hitter but I don't feel the same about pitchers. I don't recall its impact two years ago but I thought there was some. Could we have some insight on how this may effect pitchers?

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It may be a lousy stat but there are leagues that have it. If you join one of them, Holds becomes as valuable as Saves.

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This is probably a bad topic title but what the heck. I am currently in an email draft for a new dynasty league. The league has the normal 5 pitching categories plus holds. It also has a minimum inning count of 900 and a maximum of 1750. There are 5 SP slots and 5 RP slots. You can also make daily r...

viper

And I have heard to it said that "perception is reality".

viper

One thing is that I want them to be projections and not predictions. I consider there is a difference. We take a site's projections and then quite often modify them in our minds. These projections then become more like predictions.

viper

When the Nats got Soriano in what would hardly be called a hitters park in the RFK days, the Nats front office said that looking at the type of HRs that Soriano hit, he would still hit a huge bunch. Soriano had a 40/40 season. They were right. Projecting 40 at RFK would have taken some big ones for ...

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As a person in a group with Nats season's tickets, he was necessary for PR purposes. God, knows he has many shortcomings but the Lerners were close to being highly criticized for their lack of movement aside from a seemingly big effort for Teixeira, a player who never would have signed with a losing...

viper

Draft to Date. My biggest "pauses" are bolded. Most are because they seemed very early even for a dynasty league. I am MIKE drafting 12th This is a Dynasty league. 12 teams 40 man rosters all 40-man rostered players available for draft - majors & minors unlimited keepers with off-seaso...

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