Search found 96 matches

by mjlewis
August 4th, 2018, 3:14 am
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: MR usage in normal leagues
Replies: 1
Views: 3549

MR usage in normal leagues

Assume a normal 12-team mixed, so 108 pitchers are used each week. Assume that there are no closers by committee and all 30 closers are in use. How many middle relievers should be active each week? Obviously Hader is better than SP78, but how much higher does it go? For a somewhat arbitrary referenc...
by mjlewis
March 25th, 2018, 4:00 pm
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: Points/rankings spreadsheet
Replies: 4
Views: 3662

Re: Points/rankings spreadsheet

Looks great! Thanks again.
by mjlewis
March 25th, 2018, 1:37 pm
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: Points/rankings spreadsheet
Replies: 4
Views: 3662

Re: Rankings spreadsheet

yeah, the new points sheet. Sorry about the confusion.

No hurry, finish your draft first! I had been doing it with just adding my own formula to the regular projection pages, I'll survive with that.
by mjlewis
March 25th, 2018, 12:53 pm
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: Points/rankings spreadsheet
Replies: 4
Views: 3662

Points/rankings spreadsheet

Thanks for creating this! If I wanted to add Holds as a pitching category, is that something I could do myself? Also, on the Pitchers tab, why does Clayton Kershaw have 46 blown saves? That seems like a lot. Also most closers have negative BS equal to or close to SV, which inflates their totals a bi...
by mjlewis
January 28th, 2018, 4:26 am
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Valuation theory question
Replies: 2
Views: 1818

Valuation theory question

Related to your most recent post, I'm not quite sure how to answer this in a way that feels right. Replacement/marginal value is calculated by generating the valuation of the worst player at a given position and setting that to the minimum bid, and then you build off that to figure out the prices fo...
by mjlewis
March 26th, 2017, 12:05 am
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Help for a first time fantasy baseball player
Replies: 4
Views: 1858

Re: Help for a first time fantasy baseball player

The Fangraphs auction pricing tool is also free and worth trying out, though it doesn't really do anything fancy like tracking during the auction.
by mjlewis
March 26th, 2017, 12:03 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: CVRC and one-catcher leagues
Replies: 1
Views: 2173

CVRC and one-catcher leagues

I used the CVRC for my league yesterday. We have 18 teams, normal rosters but one of the catcher slots has been changed to a second UT slot. The CVRC correctly priced 19 catchers at $1 or more, but they top out at Lucroy and Posey for $10, a handful at $6-8, and the bulk at $5 or less. The Fangraphs...
by mjlewis
March 18th, 2017, 12:16 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: Pitching CVRC oddity
Replies: 1
Views: 2039

Pitching CVRC oddity

Any idea why the best SPs have nontrivial SV$ components? Looking at the March 17 CVRC for a 12-team mixed, Kershaw gets $1.72 in save value. It seems to be directly correlated with the pitcher's overall value, not one of the other components. It's not a big deal, but it inflates the top ten or so S...
by mjlewis
June 15th, 2015, 2:55 am
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Starter vs closer in the very short term
Replies: 1
Views: 2658

Starter vs closer in the very short term

One of my leagues has activations twice a week, and I have to decide whether I want a starter or closer in my last pitching slot for the next four days. I'd like your opinion on if this analysis looks right, and if you have any stats (or know how to get them) for the numbers I'm assuming. I don't th...
by mjlewis
March 29th, 2015, 9:11 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: Draft App Crashes
Replies: 4
Views: 2063

Re: Draft App Crashes

I had 5+ crashes of this type in my draft yesterday. I didn't lose any state - it correctly put whoever I had just drafted onto the proper team when I reopened the application - but it was annoying. Another bug: before the draft I set up keepers, and then when the auction started I discovered that I...
by mjlewis
January 27th, 2015, 10:29 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Too Much Of A Good Thing?
Replies: 11
Views: 1202

Re: Too Much Of A Good Thing?

It would mean that I'd free up a keeper slot though - i.e. it'd also let me keep someone I'm thinking of cutting, like Derek Holland $4 or Kipnis $16. That may not be much of a gain though.
by mjlewis
January 27th, 2015, 3:06 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Too Much Of A Good Thing?
Replies: 11
Views: 1202

Re: Too Much Of A Good Thing?

I have a very similar question, except that I'm working through it from the standpoint of trying to set up a trade. 18-team mixed, 5x5 using OBP. I can keep 10 and I have about 15 decent candidates. We have huge minor league rosters so inflation is very high - Miggy was actually kept at $60 last yea...
by mjlewis
March 3rd, 2014, 11:00 am
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: matching extension lengths
Replies: 13
Views: 2503

Re: matching extension lengths

Another data point, from LABR NL: CarGo $36 McCutchen/Kershaw $35 Braun/Goldschmidt $33 Harper/Votto/Gomez $32 Hanley $31 Pence $29 (this was by far the latest guy who went for this much, I think this was a case of a couple teams saving for the last good OF or something) BHamilton/Tulo $28 Puig/Segu...
by mjlewis
February 27th, 2014, 5:21 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: matching extension lengths
Replies: 13
Views: 2503

Re: matching extension lengths

I did not understand that sentence. Fair enough. I listed a dozen names not counting any Dodgers. One auction ranked him 8th most expensive and NESN ranked him 11th overall. Of the 12 I listed, just for laughs, in those two draft/auctions, who did Gomez go ahead of in those two lists? oh, sure, tha...
by mjlewis
February 27th, 2014, 3:12 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: matching extension lengths
Replies: 13
Views: 2503

Re: matching extension lengths

I did not understand that sentence.
by mjlewis
February 25th, 2014, 5:10 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: matching extension lengths
Replies: 13
Views: 2503

Re: matching extension lengths

huh. For what it's worth, http://stats.nesn.com/mlb/adp.asp has him as the 11th guy off the board from the NL, and the only expert NL-only auction result I can find so far (http://www.faketeams.com/2014/2/21/5432438/fantasy-baseball-nl-only-analysts-league-auction-draft-analysis) has him as the eigh...
by mjlewis
February 25th, 2014, 1:38 am
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: matching extension lengths
Replies: 13
Views: 2503

Re: matching extension lengths

Trav, do you not think Gomez is a bonafide top ten guy in NL-only? Possibly I am putting too much faith in the MB projections...
by mjlewis
February 20th, 2014, 4:24 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: matching extension lengths
Replies: 13
Views: 2503

matching extension lengths

10-team NL-only 5x5. I have to extend all of Goldschmidt, Carpenter, and CGomez. Goldschmidt and Carpenter are currently at $5, Gomez at $10. Extensions are $5/year. Is there any reason to think about extending them all the same number of years and assume that when those all expire I'll go into rebu...
by mjlewis
April 20th, 2013, 1:50 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Thoughts on some guys sitting on Waivers
Replies: 4
Views: 775

Re: Thoughts on some guys sitting on Waivers

well, Duda is second in the majors in OPS; if you can't pick up Chris Davis he seems like a good consolation prize.
by mjlewis
July 17th, 2012, 10:42 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: a couple dump options
Replies: 10
Views: 1738

Re: a couple dump options

by the time I got back to him, he also wanted Billingsley (5/yr 1), which maybe shouldn't have put me off but it annoyed me enough that I decided to think about it a bit longer. Then the guy who had Votto needed a replacement 1B and although he'd sold off most of his useful keepers anyway I found so...
by mjlewis
July 12th, 2012, 5:35 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: a couple dump options
Replies: 10
Views: 1738

Re: a couple dump options

I ended up doing the Goldschmidt one but replacing Hart with LaRoche and taking Billingsley and Harvey (I am irrationally annoyed with Friedrich from another league where I put a huge FAAB bid on him and then he has been horrible so far). So I still have Hart and a couple other pieces I can move. I'...
by mjlewis
July 11th, 2012, 5:46 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: a couple dump options
Replies: 10
Views: 1738

Re: a couple dump options

Actually, Mike ...probably not ...I'd cut them both out of the picture and let someone else get the agita with them next year. And I'd trade Doc while I could. As Branch Rickey said; "Better a year too early than a tear too late." I like Doc...but next year he turns 36 - if that's what it...
by mjlewis
July 11th, 2012, 3:17 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: a couple dump options
Replies: 10
Views: 1738

Re: a couple dump options

yeah, I'm not expecting much out of that pile of "closers", but if Cishek or Madson nominally have the job, they're worth keeping. The other options I currently have are guys like Adam Eaton, Clevenger, McKenry, Ruggiano (at 10), or minor leaguers Adam Eaton, Jorge Soler, Scott Van Slyke (...
by mjlewis
July 11th, 2012, 1:30 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: a couple dump options
Replies: 10
Views: 1738

a couple dump options

10-team NL 5x5 using AVG. I will be able to keep 15 players for next year; any number of them can be minor leaguers (we have 17 reserve slots) but we can only choose three of them to have their contracts not start, so if you have four minor leaguers one of them will be year 2 next year. Minor league...
by mjlewis
May 3rd, 2012, 11:55 am
Forum: Prospects & Minor League Discussion
Topic: Tony Cingrani
Replies: 3
Views: 3350

Re: Tony Cingrani

I think he's actually in high-A now.
by mjlewis
May 3rd, 2012, 3:30 am
Forum: Prospects & Minor League Discussion
Topic: Tony Cingrani
Replies: 3
Views: 3350

Tony Cingrani

has anyone seen him live? I'm getting completely sucked in by his numbers even though he's in the low minors and he's a college pitcher so he probably had a bit of a headstart... last year in rookie ball: 1.75 ERA, 51.3 innings, 35 hits, 6 BB, 80 K this year in high-A: 0.32 ERA, 28 IP, 12 hits, 6 BB...
by mjlewis
April 6th, 2012, 6:41 pm
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: using START with non-standard rosters?
Replies: 1
Views: 654

using START with non-standard rosters?

I see in the START instructions that you have to use those specific position codes. Is there a way to make it work for my league that uses one C and 10 P?

- Mike
by mjlewis
April 6th, 2012, 11:30 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: which of these bench guys is most likely to get PT?
Replies: 11
Views: 1159

Re: which of these bench guys is most likely to get PT?

yeah, it's not that I really want any of these guys or that I'm going to be relying on them... but the reason I made this list is that these are the best players available in my reserve draft (among current major leaguers, anyway). The hitters taken in the last round or so were Travis Buck, Laynce N...
by mjlewis
April 6th, 2012, 12:59 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: which of these bench guys is most likely to get PT?
Replies: 11
Views: 1159

which of these bench guys is most likely to get PT?

very deep league, mostly picked over by this point in the reserve draft... which of these, if any, might end up being useful? Matt Diaz Greg Dobbs Austin Kearns Steve Lombardozzi Brett Carroll Joe Mather Willie Harris Matt Hague Matt Carpenter Erik Komatsu Jerry Hairston Jr. Andy Parrino actually st...
by mjlewis
March 22nd, 2012, 10:48 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: yet another NL only keeper advice question
Replies: 2
Views: 337

Re: yet another NL only keeper advice question

One thing that would influence action on Helton and Loney is how many first basemen will be kept in your league? With Fielder and Pujols both gone, first base in NL leagues is very thing. I would certainly keep Helton for $8............and not saying I know what to do with Loney....BUT if the power...
by mjlewis
March 21st, 2012, 7:43 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: yet another NL only keeper advice question
Replies: 2
Views: 337

yet another NL only keeper advice question

11-team, NL only 5x5 using OBP, inflation around 20-30%. One catcher, 10 pitchers. 17-man bench so it can be hard to find bench players that have any value. Wilson Ramos $1 Todd Helton $8 Neil Walker $5 Jesus Guzman $2 (qualifies at 1B/3B for us) JD Martinez $10 Drew Stubbs $15 Chris Young $20 Matt ...
by mjlewis
March 21st, 2012, 1:03 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous
Replies: 11
Views: 2239

Re: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous

a report from using it for my draft: It crashed to desktop on average every 10-15 picks or so. It's decent when it's working, and it's nice to have access to the projections in an organized maner. The main thing I don't like is the UI. Specifically: * If I choose a player to be drafted that's projec...
by mjlewis
March 20th, 2012, 11:13 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous
Replies: 11
Views: 2239

Re: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous

I'll give it a try once the actual auction starts and we'll see if it remains stable. In theory, should the place I am in the standings for each category affect the remaining players' suggested salaries? i.e. if I have no stolen bases, will speedsters be given more weighting, or is the inflated pric...
by mjlewis
March 20th, 2012, 10:51 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous
Replies: 11
Views: 2239

Re: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous

one more interesting note: the projected team totals, when they were wrong, were exactly 2x the correct numbers in all categories, both ratio and not.
by mjlewis
March 20th, 2012, 10:49 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous
Replies: 11
Views: 2239

Re: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous

I got everyone in (fortunately only 6 keepers per team). I lost track of the number of crashes. I think the crashes may have had something to do with the calculating projected standings since once I started adding players to the last team (so every team had at least one player) I didn't get any more...
by mjlewis
March 20th, 2012, 10:44 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous
Replies: 11
Views: 2239

Re: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous

The team total projections do look more right now though.
by mjlewis
March 20th, 2012, 10:38 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous
Replies: 11
Views: 2239

Re: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous

I'm trying, but so far after adding 38 players I have had nine crashes to desktop with unhandled exceptions of class OutOfBoundsException so I may give this up as a lost cause.
by mjlewis
March 20th, 2012, 10:06 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous
Replies: 11
Views: 2239

Re: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous

Downloaded yesterday, the details in Windows say it's version 0.1.4.0.

I am using Windows 7. I'll try out the security stuff you describe. Any idea about the projected ratio stats being off?

- Mike
by mjlewis
March 20th, 2012, 1:57 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft: things that make me nervous
Replies: 11
Views: 2239

MastersDraft: things that make me nervous

I've entered the keepers for my league and looked at the draft screen. Things that make me nervous: Crashes when I tried to import projections, which I realize I don't have to do but it looks like there are no preloaded CVRC numbers: An exception of class OLEException was not handled. The applicatio...
by mjlewis
February 15th, 2012, 2:29 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: 12-team mixed keeper questions
Replies: 1
Views: 280

12-team mixed keeper questions

5x5 using AVG. For some reason, closers run a bit high (usually $12-15 for good ones), so I may try to trade mine pre-auction... I can keep six of these. Stanton is obvious. Who else? Salvador Perez $6 Ryan Lavarnway $6 Ian Kinsler $32 Starlin Castro $9 Alex Gordon $11 Jhonny Peralta $6 Jay Bruce $2...
by mjlewis
July 5th, 2011, 12:32 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: better keeper: Rasmus or Harper?
Replies: 2
Views: 347

better keeper: Rasmus or Harper?

I'm in 6th place in my 12-team NL-only (5x5 using OBP). Players need to be extended in year 3 of their contracts for an additional $5 a year. I can probably do something like Anthony Rizzo ($10/year 1) for Carlos Pena ($a lot), which seems like a no-brainer if I'm playing for this year. I can probab...
by mjlewis
June 8th, 2011, 10:46 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: dump deal advice/Goldschmidt or Rizzo?
Replies: 1
Views: 532

dump deal advice/Goldschmidt or Rizzo?

Who's going to be the better hitter in 2012 and going forward, Goldschmidt or Rizzo? Rizzo has been tearing up the PCL, but it's a hitter's league and he's going to Petco. Goldschmidt has been tearing up the Southern League, which I don't know if it favors hitters or pitchers but it's AA instead of ...
by mjlewis
May 31st, 2011, 2:36 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Rookie NFBC sqaud
Replies: 3
Views: 450

Re: Rookie NFBC sqaud

This team has an impressive mix of massive breakouts and massive disappointments.
by mjlewis
May 24th, 2011, 5:25 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Picking up Ackley.......who do drop?
Replies: 2
Views: 462

Re: Picking up Ackley.......who do drop?

that must be Kenley Jansen, right, not Casey Janssen?

anyway. I think Romo. There's speculating on saves in questionable situations, and there's just randomly hoping for an injury, and you could do that with pretty much any team. Wilson isn't going anywhere without an injury.
by mjlewis
May 16th, 2011, 12:37 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: trade thoughts for Hanley
Replies: 5
Views: 3043

Re: trade thoughts for Hanley

also, OF isn't really where you have holes -- replacing Heisey with Fowler is good, but your problems are Brandon Wood and (injured) Chipper.
by mjlewis
April 23rd, 2011, 2:51 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: activate Sands?
Replies: 2
Views: 310

activate Sands?

My NL-only team has been racked by injuries in the outfield (well, one before the season admittedly). My outfielders are Bourn, Hart (DL but coming back next week, I really hope), Holliday, Morrison (DL), and Torres (DL). My backups are Scott Cousins, Allen Craig (DL), Denorfia, and Jerry Sands. So ...
by mjlewis
March 25th, 2011, 2:15 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: mastersdraft - really minor crash bug
Replies: 2
Views: 816

Re: mastersdraft - really minor crash bug

another usability note: the UI for adding keepers is really weird. You have to click the player in the player list, then click the slot he's going to go into in the roster, then drag from the list to the roster.

- Mike
by mjlewis
March 25th, 2011, 2:02 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: mastersdraft - really minor crash bug
Replies: 2
Views: 816

mastersdraft - really minor crash bug

I was able to crash the hitter import from CVRC by setting the BA weighting to 0 and generating values (even though I had generated the DraftSoftware screen with BA at the normal 0.8). At least I think I was able to. I know it crashed and rerunning the numbers with normal BA weighting fixed it, even...
by mjlewis
March 24th, 2011, 3:04 pm
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: CVRC and keepers and CER
Replies: 1
Views: 511

CVRC and keepers and CER

man I have a lot of questions today. Sorry to keep pestering you. Let's say that I have four keepers in an AL-only league: Mark Reynolds, Mike Napoli, Adam Lind, and Carlos Quentin. I know I can delete those players (and whatever other players are kept) from the CVRC spreadsheet before calculating v...
by mjlewis
March 24th, 2011, 11:49 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft and keepers
Replies: 3
Views: 668

Re: MastersDraft and keepers

Is there a good way to use the CVRC to calculate inflated prices then? I can't figure out anything more clever than deleting some players and reducing my budget to (260 * number of teams - amount spent on keepers) / number of teams.

- Mike
by mjlewis
March 24th, 2011, 10:10 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft and keepers
Replies: 3
Views: 668

MastersDraft and keepers

so after my test run last night, I'm going to try using MastersDraft at my real auctions this weekend. A couple of clarifications would be useful though: I know that MastersDraft allows me to enter keepers. Does it calculate inflation off that or adjust the player prices at all based on that? Does M...
by mjlewis
March 23rd, 2011, 11:03 pm
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft usability suggestions
Replies: 6
Views: 846

Re: MastersDraft usability suggestions

well, I can see the number he's worth on the left side of the screen, it's not like i have to look hard to find it. Understood, but what is the purpose/advantage of having $1 be the number displayed when it is in the bidding holding cell? only that it saves me three or four mouse clicks if I'm usin...
by mjlewis
March 23rd, 2011, 9:28 pm
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft usability suggestions
Replies: 6
Views: 846

Re: MastersDraft usability suggestions

oh, and it thinks the bench spots are hitter only so it gives me a warning if I put a pitcher there.
by mjlewis
March 23rd, 2011, 9:27 pm
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft usability suggestions
Replies: 6
Views: 846

Re: MastersDraft usability suggestions

well, I can see the number he's worth on the left side of the screen, it's not like i have to look hard to find it. another thing: it doesn't seem to properly understand the idea of bench spots that you have to bid on in the auction, which is admittedly kind of unusual. but it's telling me i have -2...
by mjlewis
March 23rd, 2011, 8:56 pm
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: MastersDraft usability suggestions
Replies: 6
Views: 846

MastersDraft usability suggestions

It would be nice if there was an easy place to see how many second basemen are still needed, or something like that.

Also, when you click on a player with negative value to auction them, it should start at $1 instead of -$5 or whatever.

- Mike
by mjlewis
March 23rd, 2011, 8:29 pm
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: minor bug in MastersDraft
Replies: 3
Views: 623

Re: minor bug in MastersDraft

yes.
by mjlewis
March 23rd, 2011, 7:53 pm
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: minor bug in MastersDraft
Replies: 3
Views: 623

minor bug in MastersDraft

if I look at all SS available, Tejada shows up, but if I look at all MI available, he doesn't.

- Mike
by mjlewis
March 22nd, 2011, 12:14 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Auction planning
Replies: 6
Views: 1126

Re: Auction planning

When you set the position thing to "customize", you need to fill in the first column next to the list of positions, not the second column. I think I've experienced the same thing you did and that was the problem.

- Mike
by mjlewis
March 13th, 2011, 4:31 am
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Auction Leaguers - money off the table
Replies: 4
Views: 761

Re: Auction Leaguers - money off the table

The phrase "getting money off the table" as Todd alluded to in his auction article has become slightly overused. In fact there are many reasons you want to nominate players that OTHER people will spend THEIR money on. Sure it can be the Pujols, Halladay, Hanleys of the world - IF you are ...
by mjlewis
March 7th, 2011, 5:12 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: AL-only Keeper Advice
Replies: 11
Views: 1276

Re: AL-only Keeper Advice

wandering off-topic a bit... is there value in calculating hitting and pitching inflation separately?

- Mike
by mjlewis
March 4th, 2011, 6:13 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: NL only keepers
Replies: 7
Views: 3675

Re: NL only keepers

in this format, one closer is sufficient, so if Kimbrel is that, Kuo is somewhat redundant. Given that, I think it means you have to keep both Kimbrel and Kuo. If you assume that everyone is going to have one closer, then unless you think you're going to do better than everyone else at picking up a...
by mjlewis
March 2nd, 2011, 4:00 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: really unbalanced keeper list
Replies: 4
Views: 453

Re: really unbalanced keeper list

I went ahead and did the Colvin for Furcal trade, since I got him to throw in a minor upgrade on draft picks, but I'm still not sure about keeping Furcal now that I have him, and I still have no idea how much I should worry about either keeping two corner guys, two SSs, or three outfielders, much le...
by mjlewis
February 28th, 2011, 12:14 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: really unbalanced keeper list
Replies: 4
Views: 453

Re: really unbalanced keeper list

You can keep players for a $5 raise each year; you do have long-term contracts but the penalty for breaking them is really minor so I'm not worried about it. Standard $260 cap and positions. Choo and Reynolds are expiring long-term contracts. If I wanted to cut either one it would cost me $5 of my $...
by mjlewis
February 28th, 2011, 3:40 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: really unbalanced keeper list
Replies: 4
Views: 453

really unbalanced keeper list

12-team mixed 5x5 using AVG. My reasonable keepers are as follows: Mark Reynolds $16 Pedro Alvarez $8 Starlin Castro $7 Shin-Soo Choo $11 Tyler Colvin $6 Mike Stanton $8 Drew Stubbs $9 Roy Halladay $33 I can keep 6. I am inclined to let Castro and Colvin go, but I'm concerned that four of my five hi...
by mjlewis
February 19th, 2011, 11:42 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Using CVRC in shallow leagues
Replies: 10
Views: 1113

Re: Using CVRC in shallow leagues

heh. this made me curious about what the CVRC does with really small leagues. It won't run with 4 or fewer teams (I'm curious as to why), and with 5 teams and a $260 salary cap, Joe Mauer is worth $291 due to his batting average being worth $272. I have no idea what to think of that. (Also it genera...
by mjlewis
February 16th, 2011, 4:09 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Excel Tools
Topic: CVRC question
Replies: 9
Views: 1262

CVRC question

The CVRC defaults to having category weights of 1.35 for HR, 1.1 for RBI, etc. The instructions say to set the weights to 1 for a standard 5x5 league. Is that correct?

- Mike
by mjlewis
January 24th, 2011, 1:49 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: deep NL league keeper advice
Replies: 2
Views: 467

deep NL league keeper advice

12-team NL, $260 budget, 5x5 using OBP, only one catcher and 10 pitchers. I won last year and have probably the third or fourth best team going into next year, so I'm going to be trying to win again, which makes some of my decisions harder... We also have 17-man benches including minor leaguers, whi...
by mjlewis
January 13th, 2011, 7:27 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Roto 500
Replies: 6
Views: 494

Re: Roto 500

Is your implication that, in a regular 12-team draft, for example, you'd rather have draft positions 1, 46, 47, and 48 than 10, 11, 12, and 13? - Mike Not sure I understand what you are looking for Mike - how would I get picks 10-13 in a drauction? a) I brainlocked and meant 12, 13, 14, 15. b) Well...
by mjlewis
January 13th, 2011, 3:49 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: ESPN for roto management
Replies: 9
Views: 582

Re: ESPN for roto management

hi Al! Are you playing with us again this year? In my experience ESPN is pretty good as long as your league has normal-ish rules and as long as you don't go too deep into the minor leagues. as a data point, from August of last year: players available: Jarrod Parker Mike Trout Dee Gordon Trayvon Robi...
by mjlewis
January 13th, 2011, 3:43 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Roto 500
Replies: 6
Views: 494

Re: Roto 500

I have friends tell me how great this is - everyone has $100 to buy four players and then it reverts to a draft.....REALLY? If the first nomination is "Pujols $25" how do you break the immediate tie for "Pujols $97". If otoh the first nomination (or any subsequent nomination) is...
by mjlewis
October 4th, 2010, 1:48 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Last week decisions
Replies: 8
Views: 1915

Re: Last week decisions

Why are you leaving the NFBC? I was considering doing it for the first time next year...
by mjlewis
September 9th, 2010, 3:07 pm
Forum: Prospects & Minor League Discussion
Topic: September Callups
Replies: 6
Views: 2008

Re: September Callups

Mojo Jojo wrote:any ideas on whether Mike Moustakas gets called up by the Royals?
They don't have room on the 40-man for him and have problems with the Rule 5 draft already without adding someone else.

http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2010/09/ ... sions.html

- Mike
by mjlewis
July 8th, 2010, 2:23 am
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Leaving a league
Replies: 4
Views: 862

Re: Leaving a league

Had a discussion with an owner in a keeper league, when we were talking trade (him dumping, me contending). At one point he mentioned that he's pretty sure (99%) that he won't be coming back to the league next year. I told him that I would not do a trade with him, as I feel that owners who are leav...
by mjlewis
June 21st, 2010, 4:57 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Tulo... trade target?
Replies: 5
Views: 920

Re: Tulo... trade target?

I say no on Tulowitzki. We are talking about a broken WRIST here. That's 6-8 weeks just to heal. That's Two months before he gets back - and then history has told us that players often struggle to get the power back right after a wrist injury. At the very least you can politely say no to this offer...
by mjlewis
May 31st, 2010, 3:09 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: depressing activation advice
Replies: 1
Views: 339

depressing activation advice

5x5 OBP league. for the coming week, who would you bench out of Polanco, McLouth, Denorfia, and Neil Walker? It sounds like Polanco is coming back Tuesday or Wednesday...

(also, sigh McLouth)

- Mike
by mjlewis
May 30th, 2010, 4:53 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Kendry Morales
Replies: 14
Views: 1714

Re: Kendry Morales

No word on the callup, but Napoli is playing first today. When is Mathis coming back?
by mjlewis
May 19th, 2010, 5:30 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: C. Guillen VS B. Boesch
Replies: 16
Views: 932

Re: C. Guillen VS B. Boesch

I am working on a metric I call expected BABIP. The idea is to use league averages for likelihood of grounders, fly balls and liners becoming hits. With the caveat that players can have their own levels above and below the league average. Todd, you might be interested in http://www.hardballtimes.co...
by mjlewis
May 13th, 2010, 12:41 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: which DL pitcher is most valuable? (webb jurrjens or bedard)
Replies: 4
Views: 435

Re: which DL pitcher is most valuable? (webb jurrjens or bedard)

Another option you may want to consider, probably on a similar timeline to Webb, is Edinson Volquez. I've heard that he may be ready to come back right around the time the suspension is over (mid-June).

- Mike
by mjlewis
May 3rd, 2010, 4:04 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: early dump trade valuation
Replies: 5
Views: 709

Re: early dump trade valuation

weird isn't it? if you have an injured player, you can either promote a reserve player to replace them (if they're in the majors and their position is appropriate) or you can cut someone on your active roster to pick up another player. You can do multiple moves together, so for example if Furcal goe...
by mjlewis
May 3rd, 2010, 12:12 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: early dump trade valuation
Replies: 5
Views: 709

Re: early dump trade valuation

lots to do here - let's start with the questions 1) The object is to WIN this year...I would definitely trade AGonz for Pujols straight up (Gonzalez might not even be in the NL to keep next year) 2) I would not trade Rasmus unless I was getting more - right now he is as good and cheaper than those ...
by mjlewis
May 2nd, 2010, 3:36 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: early dump trade valuation
Replies: 5
Views: 709

early dump trade valuation

In a 12-team 5x5 (using OBP) NL-only league, using one catcher and 10 pitchers, and with 17-man reserve lists (so the available free agent talent is limited to people with 25 AB or fewer and middle relievers for the most part). I'm in first place with the following roster and talking to the first gu...
by mjlewis
April 26th, 2010, 12:32 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: trade advice - Scherzer for Jose Guillen
Replies: 2
Views: 359

trade advice - Scherzer for Jose Guillen

I feel like I know what I'm doing in the league I've done for a couple years (NL-only, very deep rosters) but in this mixed league I have no idea... 10 teams, mix, 5x5 using OBP, 8-man reserve list. My team: Napoli Posada Adrian Gonzalez Utley Tulowitzki Cantu Berkman Reyes Konerko Sizemore Pence Mc...
by mjlewis
April 21st, 2010, 9:06 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Carlos Zambrano headed to the bullpen
Replies: 2
Views: 278

Re: Carlos Zambrano headed to the bullpen

Hey, Carlos Silva for Cy Young! He had another great game today. If these trends continue... Ayyy!

Image

- Mike
by mjlewis
April 16th, 2010, 3:54 pm
Forum: Prospects & Minor League Discussion
Topic: NL minors pick - on the clock
Replies: 5
Views: 1388

Re: NL minors pick - on the clock

Jenrry Mejia? Bryce Harper?

I took Zach Braddock in one of mine on the basis of him having a very good spring training and the Brewers not having a great bullpen; if Hoffman goes down it's going to be LaTroy Hawkins or Braddock, I think.

- Mike
by mjlewis
March 31st, 2010, 11:22 am
Forum: Mastersball.com Articles
Topic: "red chip" article
Replies: 5
Views: 5572

Re: "red chip" article

my new data point: I can log in and read it in IE, but using Chrome (from the same machine) I get sent to the subscription purchase page instead. Also, using Chrome, it always takes two tries to log in -- after the first one it says that my session has expired and I need to log in again.

- Mike
by mjlewis
March 30th, 2010, 7:18 pm
Forum: Mastersball.com Articles
Topic: "red chip" article
Replies: 5
Views: 5572

Re: "red chip" article

I think I am. I can read the other articles in the "hook slides" section, just not that one. (I did figure out what section the article is in eventually.)

- Mike
by mjlewis
March 30th, 2010, 6:42 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: auction drafting in mixed leagues -- closer pricing?
Replies: 10
Views: 1664

Re: auction drafting in mixed leagues -- closer pricing?

It made sense, and I agree. (I've been kind of dubious of BP's fantasy tools for the last couple years but this is the first time I actually gave up on them and moved to a different platform.) I know that one of my biggest weaknesses in the auction is in figuring out when to let go of my pricing pre...
by mjlewis
March 30th, 2010, 6:38 pm
Forum: Mastersball.com Articles
Topic: "red chip" article
Replies: 5
Views: 5572

"red chip" article

There's an article linked off the main page about a "red chip" team. When I click on it while I am logged in, it takes me to the subscription purchase screen. I already have a platinum membership. What's up?
by mjlewis
March 30th, 2010, 5:07 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: auction drafting in mixed leagues -- closer pricing?
Replies: 10
Views: 1664

Re: auction drafting in mixed leagues -- closer pricing?

of course there's value in knowing how the rest of the league thinks, but I am pretty sure there is a canonical right answer here. It may be too difficult to figure out that right answer, especially as the team balance changes during the auction, but it exists. If everyone else is paying $30 for clo...
by mjlewis
March 30th, 2010, 4:29 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: auction drafting in mixed leagues -- closer pricing?
Replies: 10
Views: 1664

auction drafting in mixed leagues -- closer pricing?

I've been comparing two auctiony-pricey-comparey-tools (MB and Baseball Prospectus) and one of the big differences between the two comes in pricing of closers. Using a 10-team mixed league, MB has the best closers coming in around $12 (where the best starters are $30 or so) and the 10th-best around ...
by mjlewis
March 29th, 2010, 2:53 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: "Over Paying" for STUDS?
Replies: 6
Views: 1003

Re: "Over Paying" for STUDS?

actually the studs hitters went for about 2.25 times the prices you have listed and the pitchers went for about 1.6 times the price you have listed but my inflation was different......we can keep guys at certain values but no one has a joey votto for $0 or similar to that. my best keeper was vmart ...
by mjlewis
March 24th, 2010, 1:41 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: keepers in a very thin league I'm joining?
Replies: 4
Views: 630

keepers in a very thin league I'm joining?

I'm joining a league that is very different from the super-deep 12-team NL-only keeper league I'm used to. This is an all-MLB league that looks like it might have only 9 teams. But it's a keeper league and they had more teams last year, so I'm being given the choice of what team to take over and it ...
by mjlewis
March 17th, 2010, 10:01 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: couple of keeper questions in a very deep league
Replies: 6
Views: 774

Re: couple of keeper questions in a very deep league

okay, that kind of leads into another question... I know that Holliday, Halladay, Bay, Rollins, Wright, and Beltran will be in the auction, but I don't know how many other premium players will be. I wouldn't be surprised if almost every decent 1B is kept, which leaves Aubrey Huff as about the best o...
by mjlewis
March 17th, 2010, 1:59 am
Forum: Prospects & Minor League Discussion
Topic: 2009 entry draft prospects
Replies: 12
Views: 2337

Re: 2009 entry draft prospects

does Colby Lewis qualify? I know he wasn't just drafted and he isn't Cuban but he's new to the league... sort of.

- Mike
by mjlewis
March 16th, 2010, 10:36 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: couple of keeper questions in a very deep league
Replies: 6
Views: 774

Re: couple of keeper questions in a very deep league

yes, maybe I was a little unclear. I was rebuilding last year (well, as much as someone can rebuild in the first year of a keeper league, but more on that below) and trying to win this year. For any of the listed players, I can either keep them for 2011 at the same price or give them a long term con...
by mjlewis
March 16th, 2010, 3:47 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: couple of keeper questions in a very deep league
Replies: 6
Views: 774

couple of keeper questions in a very deep league

5x5 (with OBP instead of AVG), 12 teams, NL only, 23 active players (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 5 OF, UT, 10 P), 17 reserve players. The league has existed for about 15 years but we lost a couple owners and ended up resetting the league before last year, so inflation is relatively low compared to mo...