Search found 56 matches

by Skin Blues
March 7th, 2017, 5:53 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Splits: Spending vs Valuation
Replies: 15
Views: 5584

Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

I guess a lot of it has to do with personal style, as well. I tend to stick to my numbers more than most and am kind of forced to be proactive rather than reactive in that sense, avoiding early trends that I think will level out. Being systematically off by a few dollars on every hitter or pitcher h...
by Skin Blues
March 7th, 2017, 5:10 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Splits: Spending vs Valuation
Replies: 15
Views: 5584

Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation

Bringing this back from the dead, but it's that month of the year when my mind is on valuation and there aren't a lot of venues to discuss things in this much detail. I will say, first off, that I agree strongly with Todd's assertion that you need to match your values with your league's values in te...
by Skin Blues
March 7th, 2017, 4:17 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Category Weights
Replies: 1
Views: 1355

Category Weights

OK, so something I've been thinking of and decided to look into today was regressing auction sell prices to get an idea of how people allocate money to different categories when the rubber meets the road. Quite often stolen bases will have a premium on them, but other than that, what can we do to be...
by Skin Blues
March 4th, 2015, 4:07 pm
Forum: League Openings
Topic: AL & NL Only Leagues looking for a new owner
Replies: 0
Views: 4187

AL & NL Only Leagues looking for a new owner

I run two re-draft leagues, AL Only and NL Only. Both leagues have the same settings, $50 entry per league with 100% payout through LeagueSafe, 10 team 5x5 Roto, $260 Auction, hosted on ESPN. Many owners have a team in both leagues. NL Only Auction: Friday April 3rd, 8PM ET AL Only Auction: Saturday...
by Skin Blues
December 30th, 2014, 4:13 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Mastersball Valuation Method
Replies: 16
Views: 4960

Re: Mastersball Valuation Method

FWIW I've done a rough calculation for the CER based on last season's NFBC Auction Championship leagues (nine leagues each with 15 teams). I'm not 100% sure I did it right, and I've only done the hitters thus far, but I came out with the following category multipliers: HR: 1.00 R: 1.13 RBI: 1.06 SB:...
by Skin Blues
December 30th, 2014, 12:32 am
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Park Adjusting
Replies: 2
Views: 1847

Park Adjusting

I was reading over the projection process, and have a few questions. Specifically about how neutral projections are adjusted to a player's home team environment. I see that you point out they are adjusted for his home park , but what about adjusting for home division ? Such as, the quality of hittin...
by Skin Blues
March 2nd, 2011, 4:14 am
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: 2011 SHORTSTOP CONSENSUS RANKINGS
Replies: 10
Views: 4333

Re: 2011 SHORTSTOP CONSENSUS RANKINGS

12 - H. Ramirez 11 - T. Tulowitzki 10 - J. Reyes 9 - A. Ramirez 8 - D. Jeter 7 - S. Drew 6 - T. Nishioka 5 - J. Rollins 4 - S. Castro 3 - E. Andrus 2 - M. Tejada 1 - R. Furcal Elvis Andrus is way over-rated, from what I can see, and Miggy is getting absolutely no love for his solid, steady performan...
by Skin Blues
February 27th, 2011, 1:42 am
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Who plays in what kind of league?
Replies: 13
Views: 5867

Re: Who plays in what kind of league?

14 team Mixed Draft x2
10 team NL Auction
10 team AL Auction

All are re-draft, no keepers. All are standard 5x5 roto, except the NL one which substituted QS and OBA for W and BA.
by Skin Blues
February 21st, 2011, 11:33 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Scotty Pods
Replies: 14
Views: 1189

Re: Scotty Pods

Plantar fasciitis has returned; out indefinitely. Please God, do not let this mean Corey Patterson makes the team.

http://www.torontosun.com/sports/baseba ... 56806.html
by Skin Blues
February 13th, 2011, 11:34 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Big Tex vs. AdGon
Replies: 22
Views: 1943

Re: Big Tex vs. AdGon

The level of stats to really answer the question is above my pay scale. My rather crude example is thus. If 16 people flip a coin 4 times, one is going to get heads all 4 times. This is akin to having a down first half then a better second half four years in a row. So using simple probability, 1 of...
by Skin Blues
January 30th, 2011, 12:24 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: The Mike Napoli Wheel of Fortune
Replies: 10
Views: 1112

Re: The Mike Napoli Wheel of Fortune

Bengie Molina is a 36-year-old catcher with both declining games played and performance for two years in a row (the most recent of which showed him in a severe spiral downward power-wise). Molina isn't there anymore, it's Torrealba, Treanor and Teagarden. I have a feeling the only reason Treanor is...
by Skin Blues
July 26th, 2010, 11:41 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: NEWS FLASH! Dan Haren traded to the Angels
Replies: 25
Views: 3618

Re: NEWS FLASH! Dan Haren traded to the Angels

I'm not saying that there isn't some misfortune involved. One year - anomaly. Two years? Coincidence. But three and four aren't equal to 7 here - and this season isn't starting off for him like he'll do anything to dispel those numbers. Also keep in mind he's going to a team that intends to play Al...
by Skin Blues
June 16th, 2010, 11:03 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Conor Jackson
Replies: 7
Views: 1006

Re: Conor Jackson

I also have Crisp. And Eric Chavez (stashed in the DL slot until he retires). And yeah, only OF for Jackson. I shouldn't have relied on my memory for his 1B qualification. Vladdy should be OF eligible by next week so my utility spot will be freed up, which is nice. Now, how badly do I want another m...
by Skin Blues
June 16th, 2010, 12:46 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Conor Jackson
Replies: 7
Views: 1006

Re: Conor Jackson

I was gonna take a stab at him in my AL only, now I'm not so sure. He only has to be better than one of Kotchman/Blalock/Valencia which really shouldn't be that hard. About who is he on par with the rest of the way this year?
by Skin Blues
June 15th, 2010, 12:36 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: MLB Collusion?
Replies: 59
Views: 5684

Re: MLB Collusion?

I guess I kind of assume that this "field a bad team all the time and roll in the revenue sharing cash" strategy is not as fruitful as actually trying to win. I'm starting to feel like I'm wrong. maybe teams invest so little in scouting and other areas that they continue to make small amou...
by Skin Blues
June 14th, 2010, 12:05 am
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: MLB Collusion?
Replies: 59
Views: 5684

Re: MLB Collusion?

while maximizing their own profits This is the key -- they are MAXIMIZING PROFITS at the expense of having the BEST 25 PLAYERS on the field from opening day. Why should there be ANY PROFIT for a business not "successful" or at minimum, not trying to be as successful as possible? Teams are...
by Skin Blues
June 13th, 2010, 1:54 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: MLB Collusion?
Replies: 59
Views: 5684

Re: MLB Collusion?

All I see are teams acting independently from one another while maximizing their own profits. It's not a difficult concept to grasp that requires multi-team involvement. Not only do I not see any evidence of collusion, there's no evidence that collusion would even help in the first place.
by Skin Blues
June 11th, 2010, 11:54 am
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: MLB Collusion?
Replies: 59
Views: 5684

Re: MLB Collusion?

I think somebody needs to learn what collusion means. They're using a loophole in the rules to save money, they're not having secret meetings and bribing other teams to keep prospects in the minors.
by Skin Blues
June 10th, 2010, 3:55 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Armando Galarraga--2 questions
Replies: 8
Views: 1216

Re: Armando Galarraga--2 questions

I agree, crappy pitchers throw no-hitters. And one-hitters, and two-hitters. He had three strikeouts and a lot of luck. It happens from time to time. It's not like he was all of a sudden amazing for one day and then back to mediocre. He's been mediocre the whole time. Even a blind squirrel finds a n...
by Skin Blues
June 10th, 2010, 10:22 am
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: MLB Collusion?
Replies: 59
Views: 5684

Re: MLB Collusion?

Well that to me is a flawed arbitration system. But what do I know? Service time shouldn't be a factor. Did it matter for Ichiro or Hideki that they didn't have any MLB experience? Clearly he is the best pitcher in the league, had been voted as such for two consecutive seasons, and deserves as much ...
by Skin Blues
June 9th, 2010, 11:23 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: MLB Collusion?
Replies: 59
Views: 5684

Re: MLB Collusion?

They think this gives them a better chance of winning in the long-term. The money they save on Strasburg and Stanton (and it will be measured in the multi-millions, trust me) can be used to buy other talent when the teams are more competitive. The entire 2015 season (or whatever year it will be) is...
by Skin Blues
June 9th, 2010, 5:18 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Strasburg Projections
Replies: 21
Views: 1400

Re: Strasburg Projections

The Nats visit Detroit this summer... it's only a 3 hour drive from Toronto, I might have to make the trip if he's scheduled to pitch.
by Skin Blues
June 9th, 2010, 5:13 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: MLB Collusion?
Replies: 59
Views: 5684

Re: MLB Collusion?

They think this gives them a better chance of winning in the long-term. The money they save on Strasburg and Stanton (and it will be measured in the multi-millions, trust me) can be used to buy other talent when the teams are more competitive. The entire 2015 season (or whatever year it will be) is ...
by Skin Blues
June 9th, 2010, 10:26 am
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Strasburg Projections
Replies: 21
Views: 1400

Re: Strasburg Projections

I'm not a talent scout by any means, but I've never seen a fastball-curveball combo like that outside of a video game. And only 94 pitches needed to get those 14 Ks... my oh my, I instantly regret not taking a chance on him in any of my leagues. It's gonna be fun to watch him.
by Skin Blues
June 4th, 2010, 3:40 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Updated Projections?
Replies: 47
Views: 5969

Re: Updated Projections?

Just thought I'd point out that Fred Lewis is still listed on the Giants. I'm not sure if the playing time allocation for the Jays and Giants was affected by this. Also, Mike Stanton isn't included, which will surely have an affect on the expected playing time of some combination of Maybin/Coghlan/R...
by Skin Blues
June 4th, 2010, 3:12 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Object Lesson - chasing wins
Replies: 2
Views: 357

Re: Object Lesson - chasing wins

On Tuesday alone I had Haren (0 ER, no decision), Hammel (1 ER, no decision) Bonderman x 2 leagues (3 ER, lost 3-2), and Lilly (3 ER, lost 3-2). All the starts were either won by the bullpen or losses by one run. 38.1 IP, 2.34 ERA, 0 W. It's frustrating, but the ERA and WHIP are a nice consolation. ...
by Skin Blues
June 2nd, 2010, 10:55 am
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Different Way to Look at K-rate
Replies: 3
Views: 732

Re: Different Way to Look at K-rate

Yeah I realize it's only really useful for smaller sample sizes, such as early in the season. But it would take a lot of guesswork out of the equation when finding SPs that are on a hot streak and who to snag off waivers. This is probably something I'll create a few spreadsheets with and then ultima...
by Skin Blues
June 1st, 2010, 11:17 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Strasburg Projections
Replies: 21
Views: 1400

Re: Strasburg Projections

You could use that horse racing analogy for guys like Halladay and Pujols, too. I'd say we have a pretty good idea of how those two will perform in 2010 and 2011. Four months of a baseball season isn't akin to a two minute horse race with non-human participants determining the outcome. I think it's ...
by Skin Blues
June 1st, 2010, 11:04 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Different Way to Look at K-rate
Replies: 3
Views: 732

Different Way to Look at K-rate

The other day when Randy Wells gave up 5 runs without recording an out, I got to thinking about how this isn't reflected in his K-rate. If all 6 batters he faced hit the ball slightly differently, he'd have 0 Ks in 2 IP, but as it was, he could go and K the next guy and have 1 K in 0.1 IP (27 K/9). ...
by Skin Blues
May 30th, 2010, 4:15 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Another "ho-hum" perfect game
Replies: 3
Views: 522

Re: Another "ho-hum" perfect game

Too bad he couldn't have done this in Toronto. And too bad they moved the Toronto-Philly series out of Toronto due to the G20. God damned politicians. We could ahve used the $1B on signing Halladay for the next 100 years instead of security for a meeting.
by Skin Blues
May 30th, 2010, 4:13 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Kendry Morales
Replies: 14
Views: 1702

Re: Kendry Morales

So no word on who is replacing him? FAAB deadline is 11 PM Eastern, and I could use a bat.
by Skin Blues
May 23rd, 2010, 2:57 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Stephen Strasburg is a comin' and he's comin' this June
Replies: 9
Views: 3884

Re: Stephen Strasburg is a comin' and he's comin' this June

Prior came up when I was first getting into fantasy baseball. Turns out the hype isn't always legit, but it sure was with him. They also said he had the perfect motion to avoid arm injuries, which "they" pretty much made a mental 180 on after he destroyed said arm. It'd be great to see Str...
by Skin Blues
May 23rd, 2010, 8:31 am
Forum: Root for the home team
Topic: Washington DC and the Drafts
Replies: 2
Views: 4071

Re: Wsahington DC and the Drafts

Yeah, but where do the Capitals draft? Probably not very high, since they finished first in the East this year. I never really noticed how horrible DC teams are outside of hockey.
by Skin Blues
May 17th, 2010, 1:15 am
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Figgy and Alcides Escobar
Replies: 12
Views: 967

Re: Figgy and Alcides Escobar

It's probably pretty close to the same odds, maybe 75% success for each one. I just completely made that up but I don't think there's a big discrepancy, and it wouldn't matter all that much if there was. But consider that the pitcher is probably going to get out anyway, so the risk is next to nothin...
by Skin Blues
May 4th, 2010, 8:33 am
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Ben Sheets
Replies: 10
Views: 1008

Re: Ben Sheets

A guy in one of my leagues started Sheets and Johan the other night... 19 ER in 7 IP. Ouch. I don't know what's wrong with him, but his velocity didn't seem so bad the other night, he was reaching the mid-90s as far as I can remember. He always looks so awkward with those long-sleeved undershirts th...
by Skin Blues
May 2nd, 2010, 11:39 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Hello my name is Simon........
Replies: 18
Views: 1527

Re: Hello my name is Simon........

Lack of Ks is disconcerting, but I'm happy to have Fister in an AL only league on a roster that contains Jeremy Guthrie and two Royals SPs not named Greinke. Somehow I'm leading in WHIP. I'd read good things about him prior to his two previous starts so it's nice to see that gamble bear fruit. He go...
by Skin Blues
April 29th, 2010, 12:33 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Snider
Replies: 6
Views: 551

Re: Snider

He has 10 line drives. On the average 75% of LD go for hits. That should be 7 or 8 hits. He has 14 fly balls. On the average 20% go for hits. That is 2 or 3. He has 2 HR so that is on target. He has 18 grounders. On the average, 25% of GB go for hits. That should be 4 or 5. All totaled, using avera...
by Skin Blues
April 24th, 2010, 6:34 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Smoak is up....what's he worth?
Replies: 13
Views: 5761

Re: Smoak is up....what's he worth?

I can't watch all these guys play, so I have to put my trust into systems with MLEs like ZiPS, Chone, and also Mastersball itself, which all have him pegged for pretty much the exact same statline which is .250 with a dozen HR over a full season of at-bats. There's obviously room for old fashioned s...
by Skin Blues
April 24th, 2010, 4:51 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Smoak is up....what's he worth?
Replies: 13
Views: 5761

Re: Smoak is up....what's he worth?

Maybe I'm missing something, but I see the Chone and ZiPS projections for this guy (~ .250 BA and ~ .380 SLG) and I'm not very impressed. Usually those projections are pretty good for MLEs. He struggled in the PCL last season, although he's had a decent 15 games there this year. If I'm blowing my FA...
by Skin Blues
April 21st, 2010, 4:02 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Carlos Zambrano headed to the bullpen
Replies: 2
Views: 272

Carlos Zambrano headed to the bullpen

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/04/holy-cow-the-cubs-are-moving-carlos-zambrano-to-the-pen.html.php This is good news for Tom Gorzelanny owners, such as myself. If there was such thing as good news for Carlos Silva owners, this would be it. I suppose he could return to the rotation if Silva f...
by Skin Blues
April 11th, 2010, 3:57 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: MB thoughts as to if K wood gets his job back?
Replies: 6
Views: 734

Re: MB thoughts as to if K wood gets his job back?

Three walks, three hits, topped off with a walk-off wild pitch by Chris Perez in one inning this afternoon. Ouch.
by Skin Blues
April 11th, 2010, 1:38 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Jon Rauch - Real deal?
Replies: 6
Views: 486

Re: Jon Rauch - Real deal?

I heard that Feliz "temporarily" has the closer's role. I'll go search the news wire to see what else I can scrounge up. "He's not the guy we've seen come in and make people understand that the game is over," Washington said. " We just want to give him a chance to pitch in s...
by Skin Blues
April 11th, 2010, 11:16 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Adrian Gonzalez
Replies: 3
Views: 532

Re: Adrian Gonzalez

Presumably, everybody has the same knowledge about possible trades. This lowers his value for everybody and makes it pointless to trade him for fear of a league change. I can't see a reason for a certain team to have higher/lower risk aversion than other teams. Now, this doesn't address his new valu...
by Skin Blues
April 9th, 2010, 12:38 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Is it time to drop Napoli?
Replies: 8
Views: 1152

Re: Is it time to drop Napoli?

Playing time expectations appear to have been slightly optimistic around here. It's still early, but could easily be a sign of things to come. I'd give Martin a shot if I was you. This is one of those times when misguided selective anecdotal memories would have served me well. I remembered Mathis li...
by Skin Blues
April 8th, 2010, 3:09 pm
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: John Bowker/Nate Schierholtz
Replies: 2
Views: 290

Re: John Bowker/Nate Schierholtz

I had both of these guys in an NL only league, counting on starting one of them. From what I've read (way more google news searches than are warranted) Schierholtz hits for average but is below average in terms of OBP and SLG. He plays great defense though, which I had thought would translate into a...
by Skin Blues
April 4th, 2010, 9:30 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: Who has more value in a deep AL only league
Replies: 3
Views: 364

Re: Who has more value in a deep AL only league

I have Blalock and Chavez both starting... yeah, I know. Luckily Cust was cut, and hopefully Blalock gets called up before I drop him. I'm praying for Russell Branyan to miss a couple weeks so LaPorta gets 10 games in at 1B. But yeah... Chavez is the one to grab. Full time DH, and he's the backup 3B...
by Skin Blues
April 2nd, 2010, 12:27 pm
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: NFBC Satellite Draft - #7 Pick
Replies: 4
Views: 505

Re: NFBC Satellite Draft - #7 Pick

Davis is a nice pick, and I'm surprised he's so overlooked, especially in NL Only leagues. Look at his numbers at Miller Park... for a full time SP will a good track record and a team that can score for him, he's a nice guy to have if only to plug in on weeks with a start or two at home or in San Di...
by Skin Blues
April 2nd, 2010, 12:24 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: AL Only ADPs
Replies: 0
Views: 3052

AL Only ADPs

I have an AL Only draft tonight at 10 PM EST, and I'm thinking I should peruse any ADPs I can find. It's a standard 12 team AL only, I figured there'd be some data out there. Also, any last minute tips or nuggets of information would be a bonus. Thanks to anybody that can help.
by Skin Blues
March 31st, 2010, 2:41 am
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Historical Projection Accuracy
Replies: 1
Views: 614

Historical Projection Accuracy

Has anybody done anything like this with the major prognosticators? I realize the Marcel rule, but would still be interested to see how certain systems deal with the pool of unpredictable players. I'd do this myself, but the problem is finding projection data for the 2008 and 2009 seasons. My overal...
by Skin Blues
March 24th, 2010, 11:18 am
Forum: Team Management Advice
Topic: keepers in a very thin league I'm joining?
Replies: 4
Views: 590

Re: keepers in a very thin league I'm joining?

It's tempting to go after that Halladay/Lincecum combo for so cheap, knowing you can get Hanley and Kinsler in the auction. Top 2 SPs and the top SS (top hitter period), not to mention Kinsler... I know it's shallow, but that's gotta be the best cornerstone in a league where there will essentially b...
by Skin Blues
March 19th, 2010, 9:08 am
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Question regarding inflation calculations
Replies: 4
Views: 853

Re: Question regarding inflation calculations

It shouldn't affect inflation for the auction. He's not in the available player pool, and no money will be spent on him. I'd assume a pretty even distribution of skills amongst the rookies, so I wouldn't worry about altering any values. Unless of course a situation arises where there are a few rooki...
by Skin Blues
March 19th, 2010, 8:28 am
Forum: Player News and Analysis
Topic: Dontrelle Willis sighting
Replies: 3
Views: 353

Re: Dontrelle Willis sighting

4 walks in what is considered a "good" spring outing for him. 1:1 K/BB ratio. I think the only fluke was when he actually had some success. He lived, and is now dying, by his ridiculous delivery. The stars are unaligned. He's a modern day Mitch Williams. As a Jays fan, I have rather fond m...
by Skin Blues
March 15th, 2010, 11:20 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: W per IP
Replies: 15
Views: 2422

Re: W per IP

Decided to run the numbers for pitchers with no games started, less than 5 saves, at least 50 IP, 3.75 ERA or lower, between the years 2000-2009. Essentially - middle relievers. And the verdict, through 381 results, was: 0.061 . It seems this is a pretty good number to use for MR purposes. Another t...
by Skin Blues
March 15th, 2010, 10:35 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: W per IP
Replies: 15
Views: 2422

Re: W per IP

I ran a some regressions on this kind of thing a little while ago with the Lahman database (very handy tool) to come up with a rough formula for the contributions of not only a pitcher's ERA and team's runs scored/9IP on W/GS, but also the pitcher's IP/Start. It gets messy with pitchers that are pro...
by Skin Blues
March 14th, 2010, 11:01 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: Tailoring CVRC's
Replies: 1
Views: 501

Tailoring CVRC's

I'm just curious if there are certain parameters I should be using to get accurate dollar values for a standard Yahoo mixed league. 12 teams, 1xC/1B/2B/3B/SS, 2xUT, 3xOF, 2xSP, 2xRP, 4xP, 5 bench, 1250 IP limit, 162 GP limit for hitters. My main concern is the IP limit with daily lineup changes, as ...
by Skin Blues
March 14th, 2010, 10:50 pm
Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
Topic: W per IP
Replies: 15
Views: 2422

Re: W per IP

It seems to me that in leagues with ample bench room and IP limits as opposed to GP, it's wise to get a few top of the line MRs as opposed to a lower tier SP to get you those final 200 IP. The win totals will be almost equal when comparing 3 good MRs with a mediocre SP, and the rate stats and Ks are...