Search found 56 matches
- March 7th, 2017, 5:53 pm
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: Splits: Spending vs Valuation
- Replies: 15
- Views: 7918
Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation
I guess a lot of it has to do with personal style, as well. I tend to stick to my numbers more than most and am kind of forced to be proactive rather than reactive in that sense, avoiding early trends that I think will level out. Being systematically off by a few dollars on every hitter or pitcher h...
- March 7th, 2017, 5:10 pm
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: Splits: Spending vs Valuation
- Replies: 15
- Views: 7918
Re: Splits: Spending vs Valuation
Bringing this back from the dead, but it's that month of the year when my mind is on valuation and there aren't a lot of venues to discuss things in this much detail. I will say, first off, that I agree strongly with Todd's assertion that you need to match your values with your league's values in te...
- March 7th, 2017, 4:17 pm
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: Category Weights
- Replies: 1
- Views: 2796
Category Weights
OK, so something I've been thinking of and decided to look into today was regressing auction sell prices to get an idea of how people allocate money to different categories when the rubber meets the road. Quite often stolen bases will have a premium on them, but other than that, what can we do to be...
- March 4th, 2015, 4:07 pm
- Forum: League Openings
- Topic: AL & NL Only Leagues looking for a new owner
- Replies: 0
- Views: 9325
AL & NL Only Leagues looking for a new owner
I run two re-draft leagues, AL Only and NL Only. Both leagues have the same settings, $50 entry per league with 100% payout through LeagueSafe, 10 team 5x5 Roto, $260 Auction, hosted on ESPN. Many owners have a team in both leagues. NL Only Auction: Friday April 3rd, 8PM ET AL Only Auction: Saturday...
- December 30th, 2014, 4:13 pm
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: Mastersball Valuation Method
- Replies: 16
- Views: 7252
Re: Mastersball Valuation Method
FWIW I've done a rough calculation for the CER based on last season's NFBC Auction Championship leagues (nine leagues each with 15 teams). I'm not 100% sure I did it right, and I've only done the hitters thus far, but I came out with the following category multipliers: HR: 1.00 R: 1.13 RBI: 1.06 SB:...
- December 30th, 2014, 12:32 am
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: Park Adjusting
- Replies: 2
- Views: 3247
Park Adjusting
I was reading over the projection process, and have a few questions. Specifically about how neutral projections are adjusted to a player's home team environment. I see that you point out they are adjusted for his home park , but what about adjusting for home division ? Such as, the quality of hittin...
- March 2nd, 2011, 4:14 am
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: 2011 SHORTSTOP CONSENSUS RANKINGS
- Replies: 10
- Views: 6956
Re: 2011 SHORTSTOP CONSENSUS RANKINGS
12 - H. Ramirez 11 - T. Tulowitzki 10 - J. Reyes 9 - A. Ramirez 8 - D. Jeter 7 - S. Drew 6 - T. Nishioka 5 - J. Rollins 4 - S. Castro 3 - E. Andrus 2 - M. Tejada 1 - R. Furcal Elvis Andrus is way over-rated, from what I can see, and Miggy is getting absolutely no love for his solid, steady performan...
- February 27th, 2011, 1:42 am
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: Who plays in what kind of league?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 8638
Re: Who plays in what kind of league?
14 team Mixed Draft x2
10 team NL Auction
10 team AL Auction
All are re-draft, no keepers. All are standard 5x5 roto, except the NL one which substituted QS and OBA for W and BA.
10 team NL Auction
10 team AL Auction
All are re-draft, no keepers. All are standard 5x5 roto, except the NL one which substituted QS and OBA for W and BA.
- February 21st, 2011, 11:33 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Scotty Pods
- Replies: 14
- Views: 1565
Re: Scotty Pods
Plantar fasciitis has returned; out indefinitely. Please God, do not let this mean Corey Patterson makes the team.
http://www.torontosun.com/sports/baseba ... 56806.html
http://www.torontosun.com/sports/baseba ... 56806.html
- February 13th, 2011, 11:34 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Big Tex vs. AdGon
- Replies: 22
- Views: 2406
Re: Big Tex vs. AdGon
The level of stats to really answer the question is above my pay scale. My rather crude example is thus. If 16 people flip a coin 4 times, one is going to get heads all 4 times. This is akin to having a down first half then a better second half four years in a row. So using simple probability, 1 of...
- January 30th, 2011, 12:24 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: The Mike Napoli Wheel of Fortune
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1490
Re: The Mike Napoli Wheel of Fortune
Bengie Molina is a 36-year-old catcher with both declining games played and performance for two years in a row (the most recent of which showed him in a severe spiral downward power-wise). Molina isn't there anymore, it's Torrealba, Treanor and Teagarden. I have a feeling the only reason Treanor is...
- July 26th, 2010, 11:41 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: NEWS FLASH! Dan Haren traded to the Angels
- Replies: 25
- Views: 4044
Re: NEWS FLASH! Dan Haren traded to the Angels
I'm not saying that there isn't some misfortune involved. One year - anomaly. Two years? Coincidence. But three and four aren't equal to 7 here - and this season isn't starting off for him like he'll do anything to dispel those numbers. Also keep in mind he's going to a team that intends to play Al...
- June 16th, 2010, 11:03 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Conor Jackson
- Replies: 7
- Views: 1549
Re: Conor Jackson
I also have Crisp. And Eric Chavez (stashed in the DL slot until he retires). And yeah, only OF for Jackson. I shouldn't have relied on my memory for his 1B qualification. Vladdy should be OF eligible by next week so my utility spot will be freed up, which is nice. Now, how badly do I want another m...
- June 16th, 2010, 12:46 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Conor Jackson
- Replies: 7
- Views: 1549
Re: Conor Jackson
I was gonna take a stab at him in my AL only, now I'm not so sure. He only has to be better than one of Kotchman/Blalock/Valencia which really shouldn't be that hard. About who is he on par with the rest of the way this year?
- June 15th, 2010, 12:36 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: MLB Collusion?
- Replies: 59
- Views: 7615
Re: MLB Collusion?
I guess I kind of assume that this "field a bad team all the time and roll in the revenue sharing cash" strategy is not as fruitful as actually trying to win. I'm starting to feel like I'm wrong. maybe teams invest so little in scouting and other areas that they continue to make small amou...
- June 14th, 2010, 12:05 am
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: MLB Collusion?
- Replies: 59
- Views: 7615
Re: MLB Collusion?
while maximizing their own profits This is the key -- they are MAXIMIZING PROFITS at the expense of having the BEST 25 PLAYERS on the field from opening day. Why should there be ANY PROFIT for a business not "successful" or at minimum, not trying to be as successful as possible? Teams are...
- June 13th, 2010, 1:54 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: MLB Collusion?
- Replies: 59
- Views: 7615
Re: MLB Collusion?
All I see are teams acting independently from one another while maximizing their own profits. It's not a difficult concept to grasp that requires multi-team involvement. Not only do I not see any evidence of collusion, there's no evidence that collusion would even help in the first place.
- June 11th, 2010, 11:54 am
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: MLB Collusion?
- Replies: 59
- Views: 7615
Re: MLB Collusion?
I think somebody needs to learn what collusion means. They're using a loophole in the rules to save money, they're not having secret meetings and bribing other teams to keep prospects in the minors.
- June 10th, 2010, 3:55 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Armando Galarraga--2 questions
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1578
Re: Armando Galarraga--2 questions
I agree, crappy pitchers throw no-hitters. And one-hitters, and two-hitters. He had three strikeouts and a lot of luck. It happens from time to time. It's not like he was all of a sudden amazing for one day and then back to mediocre. He's been mediocre the whole time. Even a blind squirrel finds a n...
- June 10th, 2010, 10:22 am
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: MLB Collusion?
- Replies: 59
- Views: 7615
Re: MLB Collusion?
Well that to me is a flawed arbitration system. But what do I know? Service time shouldn't be a factor. Did it matter for Ichiro or Hideki that they didn't have any MLB experience? Clearly he is the best pitcher in the league, had been voted as such for two consecutive seasons, and deserves as much ...
- June 9th, 2010, 11:23 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: MLB Collusion?
- Replies: 59
- Views: 7615
Re: MLB Collusion?
They think this gives them a better chance of winning in the long-term. The money they save on Strasburg and Stanton (and it will be measured in the multi-millions, trust me) can be used to buy other talent when the teams are more competitive. The entire 2015 season (or whatever year it will be) is...
- June 9th, 2010, 5:18 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Strasburg Projections
- Replies: 21
- Views: 1455
Re: Strasburg Projections
The Nats visit Detroit this summer... it's only a 3 hour drive from Toronto, I might have to make the trip if he's scheduled to pitch.
- June 9th, 2010, 5:13 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: MLB Collusion?
- Replies: 59
- Views: 7615
Re: MLB Collusion?
They think this gives them a better chance of winning in the long-term. The money they save on Strasburg and Stanton (and it will be measured in the multi-millions, trust me) can be used to buy other talent when the teams are more competitive. The entire 2015 season (or whatever year it will be) is ...
- June 9th, 2010, 10:26 am
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Strasburg Projections
- Replies: 21
- Views: 1455
Re: Strasburg Projections
I'm not a talent scout by any means, but I've never seen a fastball-curveball combo like that outside of a video game. And only 94 pitches needed to get those 14 Ks... my oh my, I instantly regret not taking a chance on him in any of my leagues. It's gonna be fun to watch him.
- June 4th, 2010, 3:40 am
- Forum: Team Management Advice
- Topic: Updated Projections?
- Replies: 47
- Views: 6004
Re: Updated Projections?
Just thought I'd point out that Fred Lewis is still listed on the Giants. I'm not sure if the playing time allocation for the Jays and Giants was affected by this. Also, Mike Stanton isn't included, which will surely have an affect on the expected playing time of some combination of Maybin/Coghlan/R...
- June 4th, 2010, 3:12 am
- Forum: Team Management Advice
- Topic: Object Lesson - chasing wins
- Replies: 2
- Views: 372
Re: Object Lesson - chasing wins
On Tuesday alone I had Haren (0 ER, no decision), Hammel (1 ER, no decision) Bonderman x 2 leagues (3 ER, lost 3-2), and Lilly (3 ER, lost 3-2). All the starts were either won by the bullpen or losses by one run. 38.1 IP, 2.34 ERA, 0 W. It's frustrating, but the ERA and WHIP are a nice consolation. ...
- June 2nd, 2010, 10:55 am
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: Different Way to Look at K-rate
- Replies: 3
- Views: 766
Re: Different Way to Look at K-rate
Yeah I realize it's only really useful for smaller sample sizes, such as early in the season. But it would take a lot of guesswork out of the equation when finding SPs that are on a hot streak and who to snag off waivers. This is probably something I'll create a few spreadsheets with and then ultima...
- June 1st, 2010, 11:17 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Strasburg Projections
- Replies: 21
- Views: 1455
Re: Strasburg Projections
You could use that horse racing analogy for guys like Halladay and Pujols, too. I'd say we have a pretty good idea of how those two will perform in 2010 and 2011. Four months of a baseball season isn't akin to a two minute horse race with non-human participants determining the outcome. I think it's ...
- June 1st, 2010, 11:04 pm
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: Different Way to Look at K-rate
- Replies: 3
- Views: 766
Different Way to Look at K-rate
The other day when Randy Wells gave up 5 runs without recording an out, I got to thinking about how this isn't reflected in his K-rate. If all 6 batters he faced hit the ball slightly differently, he'd have 0 Ks in 2 IP, but as it was, he could go and K the next guy and have 1 K in 0.1 IP (27 K/9). ...
- May 30th, 2010, 4:15 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Another "ho-hum" perfect game
- Replies: 3
- Views: 539
Re: Another "ho-hum" perfect game
Too bad he couldn't have done this in Toronto. And too bad they moved the Toronto-Philly series out of Toronto due to the G20. God damned politicians. We could ahve used the $1B on signing Halladay for the next 100 years instead of security for a meeting.
- May 30th, 2010, 4:13 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Kendry Morales
- Replies: 14
- Views: 1748
Re: Kendry Morales
So no word on who is replacing him? FAAB deadline is 11 PM Eastern, and I could use a bat.
- May 23rd, 2010, 2:57 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Stephen Strasburg is a comin' and he's comin' this June
- Replies: 9
- Views: 6018
Re: Stephen Strasburg is a comin' and he's comin' this June
Prior came up when I was first getting into fantasy baseball. Turns out the hype isn't always legit, but it sure was with him. They also said he had the perfect motion to avoid arm injuries, which "they" pretty much made a mental 180 on after he destroyed said arm. It'd be great to see Str...
- May 23rd, 2010, 8:31 am
- Forum: Root for the home team
- Topic: Washington DC and the Drafts
- Replies: 2
- Views: 4705
Re: Wsahington DC and the Drafts
Yeah, but where do the Capitals draft? Probably not very high, since they finished first in the East this year. I never really noticed how horrible DC teams are outside of hockey.
- May 17th, 2010, 1:15 am
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Figgy and Alcides Escobar
- Replies: 12
- Views: 984
Re: Figgy and Alcides Escobar
It's probably pretty close to the same odds, maybe 75% success for each one. I just completely made that up but I don't think there's a big discrepancy, and it wouldn't matter all that much if there was. But consider that the pitcher is probably going to get out anyway, so the risk is next to nothin...
- May 4th, 2010, 8:33 am
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Ben Sheets
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1066
Re: Ben Sheets
A guy in one of my leagues started Sheets and Johan the other night... 19 ER in 7 IP. Ouch. I don't know what's wrong with him, but his velocity didn't seem so bad the other night, he was reaching the mid-90s as far as I can remember. He always looks so awkward with those long-sleeved undershirts th...
- May 2nd, 2010, 11:39 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Hello my name is Simon........
- Replies: 18
- Views: 1577
Re: Hello my name is Simon........
Lack of Ks is disconcerting, but I'm happy to have Fister in an AL only league on a roster that contains Jeremy Guthrie and two Royals SPs not named Greinke. Somehow I'm leading in WHIP. I'd read good things about him prior to his two previous starts so it's nice to see that gamble bear fruit. He go...
- April 29th, 2010, 12:33 pm
- Forum: Team Management Advice
- Topic: Snider
- Replies: 6
- Views: 572
Re: Snider
He has 10 line drives. On the average 75% of LD go for hits. That should be 7 or 8 hits. He has 14 fly balls. On the average 20% go for hits. That is 2 or 3. He has 2 HR so that is on target. He has 18 grounders. On the average, 25% of GB go for hits. That should be 4 or 5. All totaled, using avera...
- April 24th, 2010, 6:34 pm
- Forum: Team Management Advice
- Topic: Smoak is up....what's he worth?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 8438
Re: Smoak is up....what's he worth?
I can't watch all these guys play, so I have to put my trust into systems with MLEs like ZiPS, Chone, and also Mastersball itself, which all have him pegged for pretty much the exact same statline which is .250 with a dozen HR over a full season of at-bats. There's obviously room for old fashioned s...
- April 24th, 2010, 4:51 am
- Forum: Team Management Advice
- Topic: Smoak is up....what's he worth?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 8438
Re: Smoak is up....what's he worth?
Maybe I'm missing something, but I see the Chone and ZiPS projections for this guy (~ .250 BA and ~ .380 SLG) and I'm not very impressed. Usually those projections are pretty good for MLEs. He struggled in the PCL last season, although he's had a decent 15 games there this year. If I'm blowing my FA...
- April 21st, 2010, 4:02 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Carlos Zambrano headed to the bullpen
- Replies: 2
- Views: 295
Carlos Zambrano headed to the bullpen
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/04/holy-cow-the-cubs-are-moving-carlos-zambrano-to-the-pen.html.php This is good news for Tom Gorzelanny owners, such as myself. If there was such thing as good news for Carlos Silva owners, this would be it. I suppose he could return to the rotation if Silva f...
- April 11th, 2010, 3:57 pm
- Forum: Team Management Advice
- Topic: MB thoughts as to if K wood gets his job back?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 757
Re: MB thoughts as to if K wood gets his job back?
Three walks, three hits, topped off with a walk-off wild pitch by Chris Perez in one inning this afternoon. Ouch.
- April 11th, 2010, 1:38 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Jon Rauch - Real deal?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 509
Re: Jon Rauch - Real deal?
I heard that Feliz "temporarily" has the closer's role. I'll go search the news wire to see what else I can scrounge up. "He's not the guy we've seen come in and make people understand that the game is over," Washington said. " We just want to give him a chance to pitch in s...
- April 11th, 2010, 11:16 am
- Forum: Team Management Advice
- Topic: Adrian Gonzalez
- Replies: 3
- Views: 549
Re: Adrian Gonzalez
Presumably, everybody has the same knowledge about possible trades. This lowers his value for everybody and makes it pointless to trade him for fear of a league change. I can't see a reason for a certain team to have higher/lower risk aversion than other teams. Now, this doesn't address his new valu...
- April 9th, 2010, 12:38 pm
- Forum: Team Management Advice
- Topic: Is it time to drop Napoli?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1185
Re: Is it time to drop Napoli?
Playing time expectations appear to have been slightly optimistic around here. It's still early, but could easily be a sign of things to come. I'd give Martin a shot if I was you. This is one of those times when misguided selective anecdotal memories would have served me well. I remembered Mathis li...
- April 8th, 2010, 3:09 pm
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: John Bowker/Nate Schierholtz
- Replies: 2
- Views: 412
Re: John Bowker/Nate Schierholtz
I had both of these guys in an NL only league, counting on starting one of them. From what I've read (way more google news searches than are warranted) Schierholtz hits for average but is below average in terms of OBP and SLG. He plays great defense though, which I had thought would translate into a...
- April 4th, 2010, 9:30 pm
- Forum: Team Management Advice
- Topic: Who has more value in a deep AL only league
- Replies: 3
- Views: 393
Re: Who has more value in a deep AL only league
I have Blalock and Chavez both starting... yeah, I know. Luckily Cust was cut, and hopefully Blalock gets called up before I drop him. I'm praying for Russell Branyan to miss a couple weeks so LaPorta gets 10 games in at 1B. But yeah... Chavez is the one to grab. Full time DH, and he's the backup 3B...
- April 2nd, 2010, 12:27 pm
- Forum: Team Management Advice
- Topic: NFBC Satellite Draft - #7 Pick
- Replies: 4
- Views: 522
Re: NFBC Satellite Draft - #7 Pick
Davis is a nice pick, and I'm surprised he's so overlooked, especially in NL Only leagues. Look at his numbers at Miller Park... for a full time SP will a good track record and a team that can score for him, he's a nice guy to have if only to plug in on weeks with a start or two at home or in San Di...
- April 2nd, 2010, 12:24 pm
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: AL Only ADPs
- Replies: 0
- Views: 6491
AL Only ADPs
I have an AL Only draft tonight at 10 PM EST, and I'm thinking I should peruse any ADPs I can find. It's a standard 12 team AL only, I figured there'd be some data out there. Also, any last minute tips or nuggets of information would be a bonus. Thanks to anybody that can help.
- March 31st, 2010, 2:41 am
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: Historical Projection Accuracy
- Replies: 1
- Views: 640
Historical Projection Accuracy
Has anybody done anything like this with the major prognosticators? I realize the Marcel rule, but would still be interested to see how certain systems deal with the pool of unpredictable players. I'd do this myself, but the problem is finding projection data for the 2008 and 2009 seasons. My overal...
- March 24th, 2010, 11:18 am
- Forum: Team Management Advice
- Topic: keepers in a very thin league I'm joining?
- Replies: 4
- Views: 843
Re: keepers in a very thin league I'm joining?
It's tempting to go after that Halladay/Lincecum combo for so cheap, knowing you can get Hanley and Kinsler in the auction. Top 2 SPs and the top SS (top hitter period), not to mention Kinsler... I know it's shallow, but that's gotta be the best cornerstone in a league where there will essentially b...
- March 19th, 2010, 9:08 am
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: Question regarding inflation calculations
- Replies: 4
- Views: 905
Re: Question regarding inflation calculations
It shouldn't affect inflation for the auction. He's not in the available player pool, and no money will be spent on him. I'd assume a pretty even distribution of skills amongst the rookies, so I wouldn't worry about altering any values. Unless of course a situation arises where there are a few rooki...
- March 19th, 2010, 8:28 am
- Forum: Player News and Analysis
- Topic: Dontrelle Willis sighting
- Replies: 3
- Views: 378
Re: Dontrelle Willis sighting
4 walks in what is considered a "good" spring outing for him. 1:1 K/BB ratio. I think the only fluke was when he actually had some success. He lived, and is now dying, by his ridiculous delivery. The stars are unaligned. He's a modern day Mitch Williams. As a Jays fan, I have rather fond m...
- March 15th, 2010, 11:20 pm
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: W per IP
- Replies: 15
- Views: 2479
Re: W per IP
Decided to run the numbers for pitchers with no games started, less than 5 saves, at least 50 IP, 3.75 ERA or lower, between the years 2000-2009. Essentially - middle relievers. And the verdict, through 381 results, was: 0.061 . It seems this is a pretty good number to use for MR purposes. Another t...
- March 15th, 2010, 10:35 pm
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: W per IP
- Replies: 15
- Views: 2479
Re: W per IP
I ran a some regressions on this kind of thing a little while ago with the Lahman database (very handy tool) to come up with a rough formula for the contributions of not only a pitcher's ERA and team's runs scored/9IP on W/GS, but also the pitcher's IP/Start. It gets messy with pitchers that are pro...
- March 14th, 2010, 11:01 pm
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: Tailoring CVRC's
- Replies: 1
- Views: 517
Tailoring CVRC's
I'm just curious if there are certain parameters I should be using to get accurate dollar values for a standard Yahoo mixed league. 12 teams, 1xC/1B/2B/3B/SS, 2xUT, 3xOF, 2xSP, 2xRP, 4xP, 5 bench, 1250 IP limit, 162 GP limit for hitters. My main concern is the IP limit with daily lineup changes, as ...
- March 14th, 2010, 10:50 pm
- Forum: Strategy & Theory Discussion
- Topic: W per IP
- Replies: 15
- Views: 2479
Re: W per IP
It seems to me that in leagues with ample bench room and IP limits as opposed to GP, it's wise to get a few top of the line MRs as opposed to a lower tier SP to get you those final 200 IP. The win totals will be almost equal when comparing 3 good MRs with a mediocre SP, and the rate stats and Ks are...